P94: Day two - And now there are two...

1. First there are 4 eyeing for P94 Hulu Selangor but that does not last long. As correctly posted in "Untuk BN, permulaan yang terdesak", V Chandran and later Johan Md Diah decided to withdraw from standing in as candidates. Too much "durian runtuh" offered that they just simply could not refuse.
2. Both V Chandran and Johan Md Diah can come up with prepared speeches and throw their support behind BN but the truth is, they will be smiling in their dreams counting the sheeps jumping over the fence.
3. That is not enough. Halili has also declared that he is quitting PKR and will be submitting his application form to join UMNO soon. What Halili did not realise is - he is joining the ranks of Ezam Md Noor and will be riding into oblivion soon. His services will be called from time to time when BN finds it fit to strut him on stage, prancing to the tune of Najib this coming Wednesday.
4. Overall, V Chandran and Johan's withdrawal will force teh voters to choose either Zaid Ibrahim or Kamalanathan. BN should be happy with V Chandran and Johan's decision. Apparently, V Chandran and Johan proved one thing - good things are hard to forget. Both Chandran and Johan has been too long in BN and their "addiction" to BN's candu is a tad too much for them to the extent that they can forego their frustration and anger for a taste of "special brew candu", courtesy of BN.
5. This time, hats off to KJ for his "gentleman" conduct of ordering BN youths to remove offensive campaign materials in the form of billboards, posters and banners that attack the dignity of candidates. However, whether his instructions will be adhered to by BN youths and UMNO is another matter especially when his arch rival Khir Toyo gave "thumbs up" to the booze strategy. Talk about class and crass...
6. And now there are two candidates standing to square off this 25th April. It will be either Zaid or Kamalanathan.
7. How important is P94? It is so important that Anwar Ibrahim himself leads PR's election machinery and najib himself will make his appearance on 21st April in Hulu Selangor. UMNO can downgrade Najib's appearance by claiming that Najib is there in his capacity as Selangor UMNO chief but reality is Najib is there because he did not trust Muhyiddin.
8. Not only that, both Najib and Muhyiddin are jostling for credit in the event BN wins the seat. The open question is - can BN wins?
9. Najib's appearance is a clear indication that all is not well in BN. They need Najib to get that "extra" oomph, something Muhyiddin is lacking. But Najib will be coming in with an additional baggage. The baggage has been stealing Najib's thunder and fortunately she did not feature in Najib-Obama meeting!
10. Najib's speacial appearance will be countered with Nik Aziz's scheduled appearance on 23rd April.
11. Right now, BN is going strong with candidates withdrawal, Halili's quit and even tacit support from Ibrahim Ali. How much that will be converted into BN's votes will be instrumental when it comes to 25th April.
12. PAS is now getting into the picture and the impact will be seen within the next few days.
13. BN is not resting on its laurels now as PR will retaliate to win support from voters. On last count, the orang asli votes are no longer rock solid for BN. PR is making inroads in orang asli villages and JHEOA could no longer hold monopoly to their votes.
14. PR is also making inroads to Felda scheme and if PR plays their cards right, BN will "berputih mata" on polling day.
15. Ibrahim Ali predicted BN win by 3000 votes whilst RPK opts for PR by 5000 votes majority. What it means is that this is going a major fight and both parties are not aiming for small majority. It is going to be a decisive by-election.
16. It is still too early to predict the voters swing. BN may thinks that they are winning but PR still has the edge...
17. However, the real decider may be these 13,488 or 20 % of the registered voters who has their polling centre changed by EC on grounds to avoid congestion. The intention may be good but the question is - why didn't EC make it known to all contesting parties prior to PKR's "discovery"?
18. Remember 2004 GE when voters were given the run around in KL and Selangor? Will the same chaos repeated in P94 Hulu Selangor? I have not been following much on MAFREL lately. Are they still recognised by EC and will they be given access to polling station this 25th April 2010? Or are there hidden hands working to get MAFREL out of the picture in monitoring the by-election, especially with these "possible" 13,488 voters predicament?
19. It will not be surprising that these 13,488 voters plus another 228 voters who have been "transferred" to Selayang parliamentary constituency will be an issue after 25th April 2010. On this, what is EC's KPIs and NRAs? Have they achieved their target in P94 Hulu Selangor? Or have they stumbled in in dutifully informed these 13,488 voters of the changes? Or is EC playing "king maker" in P94?
    

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...