Monday, March 23, 2009

Of UMNO youth : Between MM, KT, KJ...and the winner is?

24th March 2009 - the date is set for the UMNO youth assembly. PM2B will simultaneously declare open the 3 wings assembly. Top posts for Putri UMNO will be contested by those SYT (sweet young things) and Putri UMNO will live up to mens' fantasy in this coming few days with their kebayas, tights and what nots.

Wanita Chief contest will be tight and hopefully the incumbent can starve off the strong challenge engineered by her current no 2.

Out of the 3 UMNO wings, the one to watch is the tight race for UMNO youth chief. My take on the candidates ?

1. Age - MM is 45 years old, KT is 44 whilst KJ is 33. Frankly speaking, MM and KT are at the right age to lead the UMNO youth and KJ is quite raw to lead the movement. At his age, KJ may be better to lead the Putra brigade. But then again Putra brigade is not where the action is and KJ wants to be in thethick of action and taht will be amply provided in UMNO youth movement. There is no clear advantage to any of the 3 candidates although KJ may have slight edge in that he is in the same age group as the delegates.

2. Current post in UMNO - MM is currently in UMNO youth exco, KT is the current BN Chairman for BN whilst KJ is the current deputy head of UMNO youth. With the current posts, all 3 has contributed in their own capacity to fulfil their obligations. Nobody has the advantage here.

3. Number of nominations - MM got the highest nomination followed by KT and then KJ. Nominations during the divisional meeting is not automatically converted to votes during PAU. All 3 has the same standing.

4. Public perception - The public see MM as the continuation of his famous father. However, MM has proven that he is not from the same mould as his father when he choose to remain in UMNO when his father opted to quit UMNO. In many ways MM has his own brand and style in critisizing the leadership, thus parallels are drawn on the similarity between him and his father. Despite that, he has proven time and time again that he can stand on his own and is willing to defend his statements when openly criticised by other more senior UMNO leaders.

KT is branded as the UMNO leader who lost Selangor. His "broom award" is not well received by the public and can be seen as the turning point to his marvellous career. Many of his pet projects in Selangor was criticised by both within and outside UMNO. Generally, he is know as the "botox" man when talks of his face make over is widely discussed in public. He may not have a famous father or relative and is seen as the "immigrant" who gain it all.

KJ is synonymous to SIL. The public is still whispering on how he manage to rope in PM's daughter and with the newly acquired SIL title, he is said to bulldoze his way to the top with a mixture of "tricks and threats". His famous photo of leading BN in Ijok has been overused by the opposition. He is said to have runners to be the toll collectors of projects. His pet project of getting Mat Rempit is not fully appreciated by the public from both sides.

The public perception, although is negative to all the 3, MM is the least negative amongst them. Advantage to MM.

5. Delegate perception - The delegates are now coming in droves to KL. The Disciplinary board's findings that KT is free from money politics whilst KJ is guilty but not amounting to DQ is really questionable. Accepting that the Disciplinary board is above politics, MM has clear advantage. Both KT and KJ needs to fight off the perception that they are involved in money politics. Malaysians are watching and UMNO needs to show that they are ready for change discarding money politics. If this is the main criteria, MM will be smiling come 25th March 2009.

6. Voters perception - The political tsunami 2008 drowns most of the UMNO stalwarts including KT. MM survived the tsunami but Kedah fell to PR. KJ's win in Rembau was question by his rival with claims of mystery postal votes. KT lost both his seat and Selangor state. In this category, MM and KJ runs head to head with KT out of the picture.

7. Performance as MP - MM's statements sometimes run against the mainstream thinking. KJ is a good orator and debater whilst KT is pinned down in Selangor state assembly. KJ wins the category.

8. State factions and career background - Since all the3 comes from different parts of the country, they will have a balance mix of support from their own state liasons. In terms of career background, MM is low profile as a businessman. KT is a practising denting before activated into UMNO. KJ declares himself as unemployed. MM has the advantage because it is illogical for KJ to be unemployed when he partly owns ECM Libra and other outfits.

9. Relation with incoming President - Incoming President is keeping his choice close at heart and as such let's consider that all of them has the samke chances and will support the President, regardless.

10. Poll opinion - Poll opinion says KT is leading but with Disciplinary board hovering hawkishly, it is quite difficult to gauge the opinion.

Based on this criteria, Nightcaller will go for MM as the UMNO youth chief. His brand of openess to work with the opposition should be noted and he has his own mind, departing from the notion that he is his father's image. KJ is popular but the disciplinary board finding and Yahya Ismail's book may hurt him. Unless the FIL stay, KJ may be finding himself out from the main stage of UMNO youth and he has to wait his turn, maybe 3 years from now. KT is Botox sweet but the perception that he is lucky not caught by the disciplinary board is not helping. Even the Selangor delegates may abandon him.

There you go, my choice and my pick. Sorry Wenger and Sakmongkol, just cannot buy your merchandise. The merchandise (KJ) is good but the timing is just not right. If UMNO were to be rebranded, KJ has to stay in the background and learn from the seniors. He is still young so he still has the chance provided he did not repeat the mistakes of appointing "politically" corrupt agents.

The same goes to Brick in the wall, just could not see how KT can win when he himself cannot take care of Selangor. Let's give MM a chance and see what he can do.

Selamat bersidang...

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...

2 comments:

Wenger J Khairy said...

Yo Mr Night Caller,

Nice article anyway, had me hooked, but I kind of figured after pt 8 or 9 that MM was racking it up in your column. I thought KT won his seat and is the opposition leader, but uses too much tempe.

Anyhow, good piece of work, and I am glad that the logical analysis that MM will win, because logic is rarely a predictor of the future, system dynamics is, and the system dynamics is with YB Rembau.

nightcaller said...

Wenger

Thanks for the reminder. Yes, logics does not necessarily blends with system dynamics. However, if UMNO wants to remains relevant to the eyes of Malaysians, then out of the three, UMNO has no choice but to go for MM.

KJ has the potential, no doubt about it. All he needs is just a little bit of patience and cooling off period, before he make his claim to the conveted UMNO youth chief in 3 years.