Wednesday, August 05, 2009

On board...next stop, Permatang Pasir

Is there anymore brave "crystal ball" gazing ronins willing to spend time in Permatang Pasir wooing voters to vote BN?

Election Commission shall be deciding on 10th August 2009 the nomination day for Penang's N11 Permatang Pasir and if there is contest, the polling day date.

UMNO , boasts Muhyiddein, is confident of certain strategies to win the hearts of Permatang Pasir's voters. Zahid Hamidi announced that they had shortlisted 5 names from a list of 2o for selection as BN candidate. In or out, Abd Jalil, the UMNO chief of Permatang Pauh has openly decline to be BN's candidate.

Wait a minute! Before we go any further, let's digest some of the info from the various quoted news reports :-

  1. Is Muhyiddein confident that his "Manek Urai" approach will win him Permatang Pasir? Another "bridge" inducement? Another "golden adopted constituency"? How many golden adopted constituencies will be created? Mind you that Muhyiddein's record stands at 1 win - 3 losses since becoming DPM;
  2. Zahid Hamidi, Penang's UMNO chief, wants to prove to Najib that he is able to deliver Permatang Pasir to UMNO when Mustapha Mohamed failed in Kelantan;
  3. Abd Jalil has openly declined to be BN's candidate. Is he one of the 5 shortlisted names or is he one of the 15 who failed to be shortlisted? Is this a face-saving move?
  4. Why is UMNO so cock sure that one of their members will be the candidate for Permatang Pasir? Has they got the consent from other BN component parties? Or is this one of their typical bulldoze ways of doing things, bullying Gerakan and MCA into accepting UMNO-nominated candidate as BN's candidate?
Briefly, Permatang Pasir has 20,350 voters with 72 % Malays, 25 % Chinese, 2 % Indians. Without going into details and assuming that the Malay votes are split 55:45 in favour of PR, that means PR will have an advantage of approximately 1,466 Malay votes. If BN were to choose a candidate from Gerakan or MCA (who are both hungry for a win to prove that they are still a factor in Malaysian politics), there is possibility that the Chinese 5,087 votes will swing to BN.

As for the 407 Indian votes, this is the time for P Uthayakumar to prove that he still has the Indians' support by placing a candidate from his newly formed Human Rights Party (HRP). If P Uthayakumar can get 407 solid Indian votes here then his HRP may survive, if not we can start saying good bye to his HRP...

With that scenario in place, is BN creative and bold enough to place a Gerakan candidate to stand in Permatang Pasir? Why Gerakan and not MCA? Gerakan's internal problems are related to the now-suspended Gerakan's VP, CG Huan. If Gerakan is given the mandate to placed their candidate there, it will be a barometer to gauge the Chinese support to Gerakan's decision to suspend CG Huan for 3 years. Any failure to get the solid backing of Chinese voters means that Gerakan is rejected in Penang and at the same time indicates that the Chinese objected to Gerakan's decision to uphold CG Huan's suspension.

There are many ifs', buts and possibilities for BN in approaching Permatang Pasir. The question is - will BN be matured enough to work on 1Malaysia approach as per repeatedly called and promoted by Najib? Or is 1 Malaysia a lip-service and not a heartfelt slogan? BN's ball is at UMNO's foot, will they shoot or will they pass?

On the other side, since PAS previously held the seat, PR is expected to maintain the status quo and let PAS work out who their candidate shall be. Speculations are rifed that PAS may named Mohamad Sabu as their candidate. After all, PAS has only 1 single state seat in Penang.

As for the independents, the only possible candidate coming to mind now is the "umbrella" man who previously stood in Bukit Gantang and Penanti. Will he make another entry to push for his yet to be party PIS? Or has he run out of funds to match the big boys?

As for the former PKR Penang woman chief who contested as independent in Penanti, this seat is not her fight. Her grudge is against PKR and it is best for her to sit out Permatang Pasir by-election.

Whatever it is, as train porters like to say....."On board....next stop, Permatang Pasir".

Me? With BN failing to live up to its expectation to wrest Manek Urai from PR, I am waiting to see if there is anymore brave "crystal ball" gazing ronin willing to spend time in Permatang Pasir wooing voters to vote BN. Any takers?

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...

75 comments:

ahoo said...

The bn machinery can do all that they want BUT I am sure the voters will put PAS back into the state govt. It will be very ideal indeed if Mohd Sabu is the candidate. He is an experienced guy with lots of potential.

This is an bygone case for bn and will see what they will spin this time. If bn is so confident that their supporters have returned, please get the 3 frogs in Perak to resign. Let a by-election takes place and save the state govt of Perak from more nightmares. A crisis that should have had happened in the first place where a duly elected state govt by the people was over thrown by illegal means.

Why is MACC so quiet in Perak case where the 2 aduns were said to be corrupt ? When will the case be in hearing again ? With so much evidence in hand according to MACC then, why no further action ? We the people know exactly wherein lies the evil.

TheWhisperer said...

How much are they willing to pay, Bro?

Hawkeye said...

Hahaha,
Balls? They are all expert in polishing due to many years of training in umno.
Permatang Pasir another burial site for umno.

The cow will be there again and talking more cock.

I wouldn't exchange my balls for their brains and that is usually a good bargain.

nightcaller said...

ahoo
So far there is no major problems in Penang for BN to capitalise. However, BN will try to harp on Nasharuddin spolit since Nasha has not surface to explain his stand (which incidentally he promised to do so in KL after Manek Urai election).

As for Perak, BN is in hot soup. To pull back, they are way in too much, so now they are using all tactics available to maintain their legality including automatic ownership for squatters who toil the land for 10 years. This will backfire soon...just watch.

MACC quiet? Nah..the court case is dragging because if they find the 2 frogs guilty and the judge sentenced them to jail; then need to go for by-election which BN is having nightmares now.

The whisperer
They may promise u the moon (not the PAS moon) but what happen if they opt to pay in installments, subject to BN winning? Can u stomach that? :)

Hawkeye,
Balls? They have none...that's why they need to resort to "crystal balls"...

Wenger J Khairy said...

PAS by 1969 votes. thats my prediction

looes74 said...

Nightcaller,
I have posted a crazy idea in MSK's blog. I am saying since Najib need a win so desperately. Let them have victory by placing a DAP candidate. Better still a chinese candidate. I guarantee with my arms & legs, UMNO will spin like mad.
Anyway, the idea is let UMNO win. Najib will trumpet like nonody business in progress letting his guard in having a statewide election in Perak for example
Pakatan got nothing to lose. DAP win especially if their malay candidate win. The Jinx is over. Present situation does not really benefit Pakatan. Pakatan need to win more than the current majority. Judging from current situation quite impossible.

Nightcaller,
Like I mention to MSK, my crazy idea. Hehe, he likes it. But Pakatan not crazy enough

nightcaller said...

WJ

Does that means that u will not "surface" in Permatang Pasir?

1969? I doubt it will be that low...but a win to PR is on the cards..

Looes74
Yeah...Not even MSK, me too are dumbfounded by ur suggestion :)

I see that PAS needs Permatang Pasir as they have no other state seats in Penang...

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