On board...next stop, Permatang Pasir

Is there anymore brave "crystal ball" gazing ronins willing to spend time in Permatang Pasir wooing voters to vote BN?

Election Commission shall be deciding on 10th August 2009 the nomination day for Penang's N11 Permatang Pasir and if there is contest, the polling day date.

UMNO , boasts Muhyiddein, is confident of certain strategies to win the hearts of Permatang Pasir's voters. Zahid Hamidi announced that they had shortlisted 5 names from a list of 2o for selection as BN candidate. In or out, Abd Jalil, the UMNO chief of Permatang Pauh has openly decline to be BN's candidate.

Wait a minute! Before we go any further, let's digest some of the info from the various quoted news reports :-

1. Is Muhyiddein confident that his "Manek Urai" approach will win him Permatang Pasir? Another "bridge" inducement? Another "golden adopted constituency"? How many golden adopted constituencies will be created? Mind you that Muhyiddein's record stands at 1 win - 3 losses since becoming DPM;
2. Zahid Hamidi, Penang's UMNO chief, wants to prove to Najib that he is able to deliver Permatang Pasir to UMNO when Mustapha Mohamed failed in Kelantan;
3. Abd Jalil has openly declined to be BN's candidate. Is he one of the 5 shortlisted names or is he one of the 15 who failed to be shortlisted? Is this a face-saving move?
4. Why is UMNO so cock sure that one of their members will be the candidate for Permatang Pasir? Has they got the consent from other BN component parties? Or is this one of their typical bulldoze ways of doing things, bullying Gerakan and MCA into accepting UMNO-nominated candidate as BN's candidate?

Briefly, Permatang Pasir has 20,350 voters with 72 % Malays, 25 % Chinese, 2 % Indians. Without going into details and assuming that the Malay votes are split 55:45 in favour of PR, that means PR will have an advantage of approximately 1,466 Malay votes. If BN were to choose a candidate from Gerakan or MCA (who are both hungry for a win to prove that they are still a factor in Malaysian politics), there is possibility that the Chinese 5,087 votes will swing to BN.

As for the 407 Indian votes, this is the time for P Uthayakumar to prove that he still has the Indians' support by placing a candidate from his newly formed Human Rights Party (HRP). If P Uthayakumar can get 407 solid Indian votes here then his HRP may survive, if not we can start saying good bye to his HRP...

With that scenario in place, is BN creative and bold enough to place a Gerakan candidate to stand in Permatang Pasir? Why Gerakan and not MCA? Gerakan's internal problems are related to the now-suspended Gerakan's VP, CG Huan. If Gerakan is given the mandate to placed their candidate there, it will be a barometer to gauge the Chinese support to Gerakan's decision to suspend CG Huan for 3 years. Any failure to get the solid backing of Chinese voters means that Gerakan is rejected in Penang and at the same time indicates that the Chinese objected to Gerakan's decision to uphold CG Huan's suspension.

There are many ifs', buts and possibilities for BN in approaching Permatang Pasir. The question is - will BN be matured enough to work on 1Malaysia approach as per repeatedly called and promoted by Najib? Or is 1 Malaysia a lip-service and not a heartfelt slogan? BN's ball is at UMNO's foot, will they shoot or will they pass?

On the other side, since PAS previously held the seat, PR is expected to maintain the status quo and let PAS work out who their candidate shall be. Speculations are rifed that PAS may named Mohamad Sabu as their candidate. After all, PAS has only 1 single state seat in Penang.

As for the independents, the only possible candidate coming to mind now is the "umbrella" man who previously stood in Bukit Gantang and Penanti. Will he make another entry to push for his yet to be party PIS? Or has he run out of funds to match the big boys?

As for the former PKR Penang woman chief who contested as independent in Penanti, this seat is not her fight. Her grudge is against PKR and it is best for her to sit out Permatang Pasir by-election.

Whatever it is, as train porters like to say....."On board....next stop, Permatang Pasir".

Me? With BN failing to live up to its expectation to wrest Manek Urai from PR, I am waiting to see if there is anymore brave "crystal ball" gazing ronin willing to spend time in Permatang Pasir wooing voters to vote BN. Any takers?

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...