April fool - the Malaysian blockbuster

Let's by pass March and goes straight to April 2009. Will a new PM takes his oath in office? Will there be any power struggle? Will there be winners? Will there be losers? And the synopsis goes...

Malaysian Insider provides the inkling that AAB will be clocking out on 31st march 2009, 3 days after UMNO completed electing new office bearers and 2 days after the nomination day for P59 and Kedah N25. If all goes well, a new PM will take office on 1st April 2009. Will he?

The front runner for PM's post is NTR. Frontrunner in the sense that he has been elected unopposed as the incoming UMNO President. However, until and when he takes the oath of office in front on YDP Agung, anything is possible.

NTR may be good, he may be par excellent amongst his UMNO peers to carry on as the 6th PM but in politics, things can change within a split second. Consider this...

The ongoing trial of the Mongolian model, the questionable scorpene/eurocopter/sukhoi deals, the public outcry against his Perak state "take over" is still fresh in the minds of the people. The ongoing trials related to the Mongolian model and the trial od sedition against RPK of Malaysia Today will be hanging above his head. NTR might be innocent but as far as the public is concerned, there are too many uncomforting facts that linked NTR to the model. True or false is no longer important. It is the perception that will determine the publics' acceptance to NTR as the 6th PM of Malaysia. NTR's case is almost similar to Anwar Ibrahim.

Anwar was at the top of his game when the world crumbled on him. Now, almost 10 years later, bits and pieces surfaced indicating that there might be a conspiracy to bring him down by decepting Tun M into believing that Anwar is a sexual pervert. Slowly but definitely, the pieces are showing that Anwar's downfall was architered by a few top echelon leaders in UMNO. Maybe, one day, the truth will be revealed...

The same may happen to NTR. With his credentials of more than 20 years in UMNO, NTR is known as a safe politician. NTR is not the person who rocked the boat but he controls a wide and powerful political machine with ernomous amount of war chest. There might be some elements in UMNO who would be happy to see him failed in his final dash. NTR's huge closet is full of skeletons, brought upon by years of his toilings to get to the top. If and when NTR falters the last step, who will be the next in line? Amongst the 3 contenders as the Deputy UMNO President, only 1 is a current MP. No prize for guessing. Will that happen?

There is 1 thing that UMNO may not anticipated. That of YDP Agung...Will he consent to NTR as the next PM? What happen, if HRH refuse to acknowledge NTR as PM? What can happen? Will UMNO force through or will UMNO counters with few names to be considered as PM? And how can YDP Agung satisfy himself that NTR commands the loyalty and support of majority of MP?

The uneasy calmness post Perak is frightening. There is no public and glowing support from UMNO top brass on NTR's manouvres. Is there something lurking underneath? When UMNO candidates are suppose to be hyper active to gain the attention of the delegates, this uneasy calmness is unusual. Like scary movies, it is as though a monster is coming out soon to do maximum carnage. And who will the victims be? NTR? AAB? Mukhriz? KJ? Anwar? PR?

April is 46 days away. How time freeze before the real show begins this 20th Feb when UMNO will announce the list of official candidates for the different posts. Will there be any dramatic withdrawals? UMNO will have hectic schedule from 24th March onwards. 4 days of general assembly and isplay of oratory skills, before marching to Perak and Kedah for the nomination day show of strength and 10 days later, the by election. In between will be the transfer of powers from AAB to NTR.

Can UMNO has a smooth transition and matured enough to march into the by-elections? Maybe UMNO needs to learn the art of losing and keep on losing during the by elections...after P59, Pensiangan and Kuala Kangsar will be on the cards as well...

Closer to heart, HRH Sultan Perak's silver jubilee bash on 14th February, coincidentally on Valentine's day is something to look for. How HRH Sultan reacts to 2 MBs' attending his royal bash will show whether HRH Sultan is matured enough to handle the situation. Some may have the best knowledge in the world, but zilch when it comes to PR...Unless, of course if last minute decree came out from the palace. With Annuar Zaini in Nasrin's side, anything is possible...

Dnightcaller's call is for MB Nizar to attend the bash, sitting next to MB Zambry...afterall they are both victims of circumstances...played out by Annuar Zaini with approval of NTR...

Till then...Gnite M'sia...wherever u are...