Wednesday, July 15, 2009

D N41 T +1: BN "wins" Manek Urai, Kelantan is still "Serambi Mekah"

Despite all the monies and goodies thrown in by BN, the people of Manek Urai still choose the Ulama leadership of Nik Aziz over development promises. Try as they might, BN forgets 1 thing....that Kelantan, apart from being known as "negeri Che Siti Wan Kembang" is also known as "serambi Mekah".
Actually, the less said the better. If you guys want to read Manek Urai's analysis, there are many forums discussing about that, so you can surf the net to fill your curiosity. However, today I am in an "itchy" mood. So, roll the ball....

At around or about 9:10 pm, 14th July 2009, the RO of Manek Urai declares Abe Uji as the winner for Kelantan N41 by-election. Abe Uji managed to secure 5,348 votes whilst Tuan Aziz collected 5,283 votes. Voter turnout is 87 % or 10,631.

Some of you may be asking, since the RO declare Abe Uji the winner, then why did I mention in my posting BN "wins" Manek Urai? Well...Nik Aziz used to say that you must be gracious in victory and I am doing just that. You see, one of Malaysia's self-declared foremost analyst openly claimed just before the election date that BN will win Manek Urai with Pemuda (UMNO under his beloved KJ) delivering Manek Urai to BN. So, once in a while, let the analyst has his BN "win" ....:) mentality...It will keep him going till the next trading.

For the purpose of this posting "win" means "to gain in or as if in battle or contest", "to be the victor in". This is taken verbatim from Meriam Webster online dictionary...

OK, let's be more serious, shall we?. Why did I mention BN "wins" Manek Urai? Well....

1. BN manage to mobilise voters out with 87 % turnouts (10,631), much better than the 2008 GE turnout of 84 %. Translated into votes, there is an increase of 278 votes. Normally, the turnout for by-election is smaller than GE turn out. My target is around 80 % turnout as the by-election is on a working day. Based on that target and my take that PAS collects 56 % of vote, it works out to 12,292 x 80 % x 56 % and PAS should be coming back with 5,506 votes. Abe Uji is short by 158 from my estimate;

2. BN manage to "plant" the Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia in Manek Urai for the major part of the campaign period. This is done despite pressing matters that he should be attending to in Putrajaya such as the abolishment of PPSMI, 100 day celebration of Najib as PM etc;

3. BN's youth head aka UMNO youth chief aka SIL of former PM work tirelessly in Manek Urai since his deputy has been elevated as a deputy minister. His hands on operation is sending shivers down the UMNO youth spine as it calls for other youth leaders to emulate him. Do I need to mention the entourage that follows him? Or the "money bagmen"that sponsors his activities in Manek Urai?;

4. BN manage to show Manek Urai that there is no such thing as difficulty. DPM and other dignitaries travel by helicopters to Manek Urai. Now, we know that promises of building a RM 10 M bridge linking Manek Urai Lama and Manek Urai Lama is hogwatch. Why? BN leaders travel by helicopters so they do not feel the difficulties of the people;

5. BN prove that you can "pay" travel expenses to out of town voters in the open and nobody can question you on that. This payment is done after voting and the out-of towners can claim the expenses at a house nearby the polling station;

6. BN as the government of that day can set up 1 stop centre in remote areas and solve rakyats' problems, if they want to. The facilities are there but the commitment? depends whether there is a by-election there or not;

7. BN as the government can mobilise 3000 police personnel to "serve" 12,000 voters. That is a ratio of 1 police to 4 voters and that should be the best ratio in the world!;

8. BN supporters can say and do what they like during polling day but if there is any fracas, the opposition will be the first to be blamed and highlighted in the mainstream news;

9. BN will only choose "qualified" person as their candidates. That means, those with low qualification or self-made businessman can kiss goodbye to their dreams of being selected as candidate. This is a big win for BN because you do not need to be morally clean to be the candidate. All you need to do is to provide your qualification papers, and are the candidate;

10. BN can put up "offensive" banners especially on the supposedly logging in Kelantan where the current state government are harvesting personal profits and gains whilst the "historic" handshake between Nik Aziz and Lee Kuan Yew to potray that Nik Aziz as ?. On hindsight, who open up Bandar Iskandar in Johor - is it BN or PAS? This last minute pscho-war did deliver a few votes for BN;

11. BN effectively belittle fish wholeseller. This is not an easy task to do. BN did what no other parties have done belittling the profession of your opponent, you are actually promoting your candidate. This is an amazing feat by BN;

There you have it. I have listed just 11 of the reasons why BN "wins" in Manek Urai. I did not say BN wins the by-election but "win" in the sense of having advantage over PAS in the recently concluded Manek Urai by-election.

Despite all the monies and goodies thrown in by BN, the people of Manek Urai still choose the Ulama leadership of Nik Aziz over development promises. Try as they might, BN forgets 1 thing....that Kelantan, apart from being known as "negeri Che Siti Wan Kembang" is also known as "serambi Mekah". And that is why, I say BN "wins" Manek Urai, Kelantan is still "Serambi Mekah"...

By the way, just a tiny weenie titbits - do you know that PAS never won by-elections in Kelantan since 1997? And that is 12 long years ago which is equivalent to 3 general election years. That information is given by Pak Bakaq, our "trishaw man". That means, contrary to all the media-hype, PAS did win a major psycho war yesterday. With that psycho barrier broken, what can stops PAS from reaching higher, further and faster?

Of course there are other contributing factors to PAS's "major" win in Manek Urai but a master ronin won't tell all his secrets. will he? :)

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...


Anonymous said...

Nice to read something positive from the MU events.

I am still think though, after all is said and done, the result , on balance, shows a net negative to Pakatan, to PAS and to TGNA.

The next 6 mths will prob reveal a lot of things , lets wait :-

1) DSAI court saga will reveal an answer

2) TGHA and Nash punya next steps will prob b also revealed

3) Kpg Buah Pala one way or another will b revealed

4) Chua Soi Lek-Ong Tee Keat giant battle will prob b resolved.

In 6 mths, our political landscape i think will again b very different.

How I wish in these 6 mths, a Barisan politician dies !!!!!!! :)

nightcaller said...

Anon 9:41 am

I look at things positively too. But I see that PAS has make a breajthrough in Kelantan because since 1997, PAS has never won a by-election in Kelantan (althoiugh they govern the state). So, this is a major psycho breakthrough for PAS which has missed our major radar screen.

This 6 months will determine whether PR can put another credible show or not this coming GE 13.

Their next major hurdle is Sarawak state election. And there are news that Chua Jui Ming will be joining PKR soon. That will open another floodgates of "BN" migration to PR...

Gerakan youth is already opening up and joining the anti ISA march this coming 1st August 2009. That will be another blow to BN...

To remain relevant, BN need to have a major facelift...(not the "botox" kind)

ahoo said...

It is the battle of wits now. Bn cannot continues to lose buy-election after having been ditched for so many occassions now. They are actually using the govt machineries for themselves to break-up Pakatan by all means if you care to study deeper on their modus operandi.

Why our MACC is so efficient to seized files from DAP Selangor reps ? What about hundreds of reported cases involving bn people by Pakatan with documents as proof ? Well, when selective prosecution is at hand, we can only watch the sandiwara and decide wisely who we want as the next govt, period.

nightcaller said...


Read how the Selangor MACC say that they are only doing their job...and yet they do not carry out their job to investigate Balkis or the section 7 mansion.

We need a very powwerful detergent to wash these dirty linen in GE 13...clorox, maybe..?