Of M N27 and C N28 : BN wins... so what?

Congratulations to BN for retaining both seats!

1. All major MSM splash on BN's double win in both Kerdau and Merlimau. Congratulations to BN for retaining both seats!
2. Now that we have gone over the feel good factor for BN, let's look at the figures :-
   BN wins Kerdau by securing 5,060 whilst PAS manage to get 2,336 with majority of 2,724 in 83 % voter turn-out by-election.
   BN similarly wins Merlimau by obtaining 5,962 with PAS collecting 2,319 and the majority is 3,643 with voter turnout recorded as 79%.
   
3. OK, let's assume that all the 5 % increase in voter turnout is all out for BN and some of the former PAS voters voted BN this time to "avoid" detection, BN should be getting 4,809 in Kerdau and 6,022 in Merlimau.That's not the case here. Why? The strong BN showing in Kerdau is attributed to 2 factors :-
   • The "Najib" factor because Kerdau voters has to prop up Najib as he is from Pahang;
     
   • Kerdau FELDA settlers are looking for their "payday" when BN promise them financial windfall after the by-election win;
     
   Now that BN wins big, let's see how BN developes Kerdau and Merlimau. In reality, support for PR is still there, maintain within the 2008 limits. The only thing for PR to do now is to "woo" the fence sitters in the coming GE 13. Not impossible when the battlefronts are all over Malaysia and Santa Muhyiddin and 1MPM6 unable to cover all places at one time...
   
4. I will let the rest of numerical "experts" to digest their figures. This posting is originally thought out to outline where PR goes wrong and I will stick to that for now.
   
5. PR lost "big" in both Kerdau and Merlimau due to various factors. These factors may be minors but combined is a recipe for failure. What are they?
   • Media coverage and caricature blitz;
     This is expected but nevertheless it is a major contributing factor to both areas. Although Merlimau is more urban compared to Kerdau, the voters primary's source of information is from the MSM and national TV. Bombardments of BN virtues and development promises wins most of the fence sitters.

   • Instant projects;
     It goes without saying of these numerous instant projects. The less said the better as this is BN's SOPSOP dishing out instans projects to curry the voters.

   • 1M dinners and lucky draws
     Say what you want but this is actually winning votes as a full stomach makes one happy regardless of the fact that this is on "promotional" period only. By claiming that 1M NGO is apolitical, it has manage to rope in unsuspected and wanting voters into their trap. How can it be apolitical when the same 1M dinner "volunteers" took the trouble to burst the balloons handed by DAP supporters across the fence? DAP workers did not encroach 1M dinner. The same when 1M organiser invited BN politicians to their events. If they are apolitical, why invite Ali Rustam? If the rply is Ali Rustam is the CM of Malacca, why were the same not extended to Nik Aziz in Galas? Isn't Nik Aziz the MB of Kelantan?

   • Sex, sex and more sex...
     BN is actually desperate. To break and to neutralise Anwar's "bigger than life" persona, BN is willing to bring out Ummi Hafilda and a string of other B-rated actors to continue painting lurid picture of Anwar. Forget about the truth, as long as it sells to the rural voters, go ahead. Forget about being religious, it is not in BN's book of ethics.

   • Buy outs and shutting up
     Remember Ketua Wanita Jasin? Remember how she complained about potential candidates being sidelined and the movement's decision to "boycott" the by-election? That fizzled out when Ali Rustam has a "one on one" talk with the Ketua Wanita. How did Ali Rustam buy her support? Make your guess - it is either financial or project form.
     Remember about another blogger from Pahang? His "mysterious" disappearance from PAS's operation centre is something to look for. PAS has been naived for too long and their naievity leads to the "other" side getting all the "strategic" blueprint". Shutting out that blogger may not be much but there is an effect...

   • Technology co-ordination
     The historic 308 shows what technology can do. Working from limited budget, alternative media and free bloggers are unable to compete with BN's state of teh art technology and the broadband coverage is found wanting in these areas, leaving PR friendly alternative media stranded.
     
     It did not help when PR staffers are not being helpful to these small alternative media. They have their reasons too - being overly cautious with possible saboteurs

   • Intimidation (straight or implied)
     Honestly I am disgusted with the way these orange-coloured "rempit" brigade rule the streets during the by-election. Their noisy machines and numbers are physical intimidation. It becomes worse when the authorities present do not make serious attempts to control the brigade. This is KJ's "secret army" and like cowboys on bikes, they coralled the voters to vote for their political masters.
     What about the "You don't help me, I don't help you"? Is this not another form of intimidation. Straight, simple and still BN can get away with it.

6. More? Of course there are more. It is time for PR to think seriously about their future. Are they moving as one or are they going solo? There have been too many spokespersons and they are contradicting each ther. PR has been talking about formalising their political pact. That was a year ago. That was when Zahid Ibrahim is still in PKR. When are they going to form that pact? Mind you, the GE is coming soon and PR is still in disarray.
7. PR should also start organising their supporters and provide specific tasks based on their speciality. Points must be argued on some intellectual level... and must be back up with some facts, not hearsays.
8. I will write more when I have settle down... for now, I see PR is a mess especially in Sarawak. You want to win? Clean up your act. No need to issue ultimatum and fan the infighting.
9. One free tip - if PR wants to go far, Anwar Ibrahim has to make the ultimate sacrifice. If he is truly innocent from the accussations that he is facing now - then by all means lead PR (if it is accepted by the majority). If not, then Anwar can gracefully withdraw from the limelight as he is becoming a liability especially in the rural areas.
10. Me? I will continue my ways. I have been doing that for the past GEs, so why stop now?
    

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...