Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Iran : Where to....for now?

  1. Before proceeding any further, let us get 1 thing straight. Normally, this scribe tries to steer clear of other peoples' country. Sort of ZOPFAN (Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality). However, I will make Iran an exceptional case.
  2. Iran goes to the polls on 12th June 2009 to vote Presidential candidates Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hossein Mousavi. In the end, Ahmadinejad garnered 62.6 % whilst Mousavi secured 33.75 % of the votes. Mousavi's supporters cried foul and poured into the streets in protest.
  3. Mousavi was Iran's Prime Minister in the 80's and his supporters claimed that Mousavi was robbed of victory. In Malaysia, more than 200 Iranians, mostly students, marched to the UN building to protest.
  4. Barrack Obama downplayed the protest and vows to press "tough" Iran policy whilst McCain claimed that the Iran election is corrupt, fraud and sham. For a moment, look who's talking? USA talking those craps? Well, if they are calling the election as fraud, corrupt and sham...what about US presidential election of 2000 when Bush defeated Al Gore through the 25 electoral votes of Floroda whose governor is bush's sibling? Final tally Bush 271 against Gore's 266.
  5. Bush may have won the electoral votes but he lost the popular votes. Al-Gore could have gone further to appeal the results but wisely step down. Many things can be said of the 2000 election, depending whether u are a Republican or a Democrat...
  6. Back to Iran. Why is the election important? What is the repurcussion and the significance on whether Ahmadinejad or Mousavi wins the election? Blankly, it is the middle east politics and the jew state.
  7. Since the downfall of Shah of Iran, the state has been regarded as the new force of the middle east. It's influence are far and reaching, across the muslim population around the globe. Iran, after Shah, has returned to onservatives. 2009 presidential election is a direct fight between the conservative Ahmadinejad and the reformist Mousavi. The West had accussed Ahmeadinejad for building its nuclear program and on the way to owning nuclear weapon. This, as the West see it, as a direct threat to the jew state's existence.
  8. For the West, Mousavi is more approacheable and easier to handle. For the West, Mousavi's win is their win.And that, is best described when Mousavi's supporters took the streets in protests.
  9. The West will be happy to fuel the claim that Mousavi lost because of fraud, sham and corruption. The West will glee further if Iran's internal security degenerates. The West will laugh to the bank if Iran goes to civil war.
  10. The protesters overseas? I look at them as the last remnants of Shah's supporters. Scattered all over the world, they will do whatever necessary to put Iran back to the liberalisation as per Shah's time. They prefer Iran to be like Turkey. Kamal Attarturk became the West's darling because his sweeping "reforms" cripples Islam and Muslims in Turkey. Look at Turkey now. They are neither Arabs not Europeans, no thanks to Kamal Atarturk.
  11. Saying that, why Iran? Why not? Iran is a strategic country with vast reserves of petroleum and natural gas. It's geostrategic significancecannot be easily overlooked. Apart from that, its independence from the world's superpowers make Iran a potential threat to the Jew state. And that, my friends is why the West are so hyped up to get Mousavi the win.
  12. For the West, a liberal Iran is better because then, the West can use and exert its influence for iran to open up and to terminate its nuclear program. This, to the West, will stabilise the Middle east. For the West, a weak Iran and a strong Jew state is stability. Forget about equality and fairness - for the West it is only fair if it is to their advantage. Inshort, the West prefers all nations to kow tow to them. That's the West and that's their terms and reference for a stable international community i.e. strong Western countries and weak Muslim states.
  13. That, in the nutshell, how I read the situation in Iran now. I see it as a colloborated attempt by the liberals with the support of Western nations and media to topple the legitimate government of Iran.
  14. Comparing that of Iran with Malaysia, Malaysians are still manageable. It is up to the ruling party and its opposition to shape Malaysia. If BN still prefer to act the "Perak" way, then we can safely kiss BN goodbye in GE13. So BN has to buck up and recall all its trained samurais and ronins to defend the BN fort. Right now, with the current situation, 1M PM6 can start looking for place to stay after GE13. Sri Perdana may no longer invite 1M PM6 to grace their corridors and living quarters...
Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...


Anonymous said...

Assuming BeeEnd really loses GE 13. Let me ask you a question, do you really think BeeEnd will peacefully hand over the reins of govt ?

And when Pakatan lets say takes over and starts replacing chief of police, army, the judges , the EC chief, with Pakatan friendly nominees, how long you think MY can last before a THailand style military coup happens !!!!

nightcaller said...

Anon 2:35

Ok, let's work on assumption...

1, BN lose GE 13; PR take over (provided thay can settle amongst themselves first who will lead the country);
2. Army is under the command of HRH YDP Agung and as soldiers, they have been trained to accept, obey and execute commands...that in itself can give assurance Thaiand coup style will not happen. Reason? Thailand coup happen because the generals took onto themselves to carry out the coup d etat. But, have u seen Thailand Generals going against the King Bhumipol?
3. PDRM..That is PR's call because the existing PDRM chief is on contractual basis. PR can terminate his service anytime. Even of there is a new PDRM chief, he could not do much as the law place PDRM under the minister in charge and not under the cabinet/parliament.
4. Judiciary system - the judiciary system has long been waiting for their "independence" from the "executives". If PR let them to carry out their work impartially without interference, the judiciary will gladly do their job with clear conscience mind. Do you agree?
5. The people - they will be the last bastion of malaysian democracy. And they will stand hand in hand with PR to defend democracy.

All this can and will happen if PR wins GE 13. The big question is between now and then, can PR remains intact and strengthened their understanding and co-operation?

Anonymous said...

You seem to have a lot of faith in the Royalty.

I believe your faith is misplaced.

Soldiers are trained to obey orders and nothing else. In the end , the highest chain of command are the Generals of the respective sections of the armed forces.

Who are the Generals? Are they appointed by Royalty?

Are they?

They are appointed by the Govt of the day and I dont think I am wrong to say every single one of them is hardcore UMNO to the bones.

Bottom line is this, if Najis orders the Army to shoot, will the Agong over ride Najis punya order?

Anonymous said...

Oh and this is another point to ponder.

We all go round Daulat Tuanku Daulat Tunaku etc etc etc....

When has the Royalty made a decision that favoured the rakyat???

I tell you, so long as the request comes from UMNO, Royalty says yes !!!!!

nightcaller said...

Anon 10:49/10:52

Yes, I have faith in Royalty although some are tainted to the core...

The Commander in chief for the soldiers are the royals ie the HRH Sultans. And that's why all the commissioned officers receive their letters from HRh and not from the Generals or the politicians. This is the difference between PDRM and TUDM/TLDM/TDDM. What I am saying is that HRH is their commanders in chief and not the politicians. And that is why their military intelligence is not reporting to the politicians....

Najib cannot order the soldeirs HRH can. And that is part of the reason why Bersih is successful. The royalty has done their part, albeit silently and without fanfare..look at how Perlis change MB and how Idris lost his MBship in Terengganu...There are other examples too from Perak (Ghazali Jawi), Johor and the rest...

That said, I rest my case...

Anonymous said...

THat is certainly interesting.

For one, we all know the Perak Sultan knows where his side of the bread is buttered.

Currently the Trengannu Sultan is Agong, so you're saying he is independent. Okay, granted his actions with regards to the MB shows an element of independence.

Come PRU 13, i wonder whos turn is it and maybe UMNO will engineer an 'UMNO ultra Sultan' as the next Agong.

What say you come PRU 13, would you b surprised if all of a sudden, the Perak Sultan becomes Agong?

nightcaller said...

Anon 6:06

I withheld my comments on HRH Perak. Admitted that he might have some interest in teh well being of UMNO (BN) to govern Perak but you must also admit that PR has not officially register themselves as a party consisting of different component parties.

That in itself provide the gap for HRH Perak to question on the validity of PR government. And we do not want to delve into why PR failed to rein in their 3 frogs and let UMNO (BN) to seize the stae from PR's noses. If you remember, Hee has voiced her displeasure days before she jump ship. The same for Changkat Jering and Behrang. In short, PR failed to safeguard their "valuable" assets and thus lost Perak.

For your info, teh next Aging will be Sultan of Kedah as he is the current deputy Agung. If UMNO push HRH Perak as the next Agung, then UMNO might as well say good bye to GE 13 in Kelantan, Pahang, Johor as they are in line to be YDP Agung before it comes to Perak's turn. If UMNO want to be penny wise, pound foolinh...then go ahead and the rakyat will gladly show UMNO (BN) the exit during GE 13.

Anonymous said...

Forget about the frogs issue. Fine, we admit that.

Lets talk about the Perak state consituition. No matter what the Court of Appeal said or that corrupt idiot A.Paul says, there is NO provision for the Sultan to sack a sitting Menteri Besar!

There is but 2 ways for a Menteri Besar to vacate his post. Period!

The Sultan of Perak 110% overstepped his royal boundary.

There is no excuse. Talking about frogs is only putting up a smokescreen.

nightcaller said...

Anon 10:53 pm

Let's put the frogs aside.

Granted that BAR council, retired judge and law lecturers have the same opinion that HRH did not has the provision to sack the MB, so the next move is to go for vote of no confidence in the state assembly. However, teh Perak speaker has also overstep its powers when he took the prerogative to suspend BN state reps. That is a bad move by PR. It shows that they are clinging to power and whatever means possible. And do you want to say that the speaker is acting within his powers?

The fact remains that the house majority shifted from PR to BN. How the shift happens is not important here. You want to talk facts, we talk facts. So why did the speaker suspend the BN reps??? If you want to call a spade a spade, then do so for both sides. What the speaker did is not correct. Period.

No doubt the way the majority shift is not to our liking and taste. But the fact remains that PR lost its house majority. The rest, as they say it is academic and history.