Bagan Pinang N31 : Winnerless MCA, listless PMSM leads PR's late charge...

It's Octoberfest in Germany and it turns out to be a "slugfest" in MCA. If MCA's EGM results is taken into account, it seems that MCA is split into 3 factions. Those supporting Ong TK, those rooting for Chua SL and there is the 3rd force whose loyalty is to neither of them.

UPDATE : The polls stations are closed now. The Voters did not come out in full force and most probably falls short of the 80 % target. It is not good for PR...so let's see what the postal votes say. Is this the time for some "magic"? :)

1. It's Octoberfest in Germany and it turns out to be a "slugfest" in MCA. If MCA's EGM results is taken into account, it seems that MCA is split into 3 factions. Those supporting Ong TK, those rooting for Chua SL and there is the 3rd force whose loyalty is to neither of them.
2. MCA's EGM effectively ended Ong TK's tenure as MCA's President, dismissing Chua SL as the Deputy President leaving MCA into a chaotic state. Who will take over the Presidency? Whilst the debate is still on, MCA can say farewell to ringing in the votes for Isa Samad in Bagan Pinang....
3. Najib's launching of Parti Makkal Sakhti Malaysia (PMSM) will not go down well with MIC. In launching the party, Najib said
   

   "The best way is to cooperate with the government through Makkal Sakti and we can sit down to discuss what needs to be done. This is the best way to build the future, to make the country strong, successful and respected," - Najib

   That statement is neither here nor there. Najib's Makkal Sakhti is open to interpretation. It is not something that PMSM is looking for.
4. Najib is also silent on the possibility of PMSM joining BN. This may not be acceptable to PMSM and will not be a good selling point in Bagan Pinang.
5. The 2 above will take care of the Chinese and Indian votes. The past few crucial days is working more to PR's favour, in terms of Chinese and Indian voters.
   
6. As for the postal voting, the close scrutiny from polling agents leads to a more transparent voting process. All this is achievable wih PR's constant harping on postal voting shortcomings and possible abuse.
   
7. That does not mean that postal voting is totally free from tampering. Although EC has stated that the postal votes will be under the responsibility of the Returning Officer, I would be happier if the postal votes are placed in a time lock safe. Could that be arranged in the future?
8. The same goes for political campaigning in the army camps. Although the army cited security as the reason for banning political campaign in the camps, it has been recorded that BN has openly campaign in the camps via "official" and unofficial functions. I would rather call for the army head to arrange for allcandidates to present their views and aspirations to the rmy personnel in a specially arranged function in the future. All the candidates will be given an equal airtime to promote themselves. This could be done in the future with co-ordination from the camp commandants. For this, the political supporters will not be allowed in the camps - just the candidates and an equal number of supporting workers. It can be done, isn't it? Must everything be lined out sentence by sentence?
   
9. As for the non-postal voters in Bagan Pinang, the mood on election day will tell the story.
   
10. EC has warn vote canvassers on the process tomorrow. If both parties adhere to EC's advise, the voting pattern will still be in PR's favour.
11. Based on past voting pattern, PR should have Bagan Pinang. PR's strong points (or rather BN's weak points) are :-
    • PR's campaign is cohesive, proof of better understanding between DAP-PAS-PKR;
    • PR is able to raised up issues, both local and national such as the infrastructure problems, land issues etc;
    • PR's candidate who is pictured to be people friendly and heads the Broga anti-incinerator project;
    • BN's lack of second echelon leaders and seems to back up tainted candidate;
    • MCA's internal problems and MCA EGM brings the Chinese voters closer to PR;
    • Najib did not promise inclusion of PMSM into BN. This may damper the spirit of PMSM and alienate Indian voters from BN;
      

12. However, for continuity sake, BN needs to retain Bagan Pinang. BN's strong points are :-
    • Bagan Pinang is a traditionally BN strong post;
    • Traditional postal votes for BN;
    • Negeri Sembilan is governed by BN;
    • Strong support from BN's national leaders;
    • BN has the full support from MSM, government machinery, independent political analysts etc;
    • More physical presence in Bagan Pinang to "physically" convince the voters;
      

13. After looking through the pros and cons, my gut feelings says PR will wrest Bagan Pinang from BN. However, the practical me will say that BN will retain Bagan Pinang but the majority will not be more than 2,000 votes.
14. If my prediction is true, BN will have a hollow victory. BN's choice of candidate makes it difficult forthe voters to decide. Whilst it is a traditional BN stronghold, the choice of candidate force the voters to not only accept BN but to endorse money politics as a norm. This is dangerous precedent and BN should not have use Bagan Pinang as a test case.
15. Winning Bagan Pinang will provide Najib's administration the confidence to carry through the projects in both state and national level. It will also provide the catalyst for Najib to come up with people friendly budget. As Najib has openly said before - A win is still a win, the majority is not important. (Think I have heard it before somewhere....)
    
16. Winning Bagan Pinang will also give BN the chance to carry out the plans to develop the country. It will give the needed boost for BN to carry out its responsibilities before GE 13. This confidence is needed to steer Malaysia through the economic landmines until GE 13.
    
17. For the sake of the nation, let's have a clean by election. No violence, please. We can have the fun but hey...we are Malaysians - violence is not our way of life.
    
18. To both BN and PR - good luck...
    

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...