Saturday, October 10, 2009

Bagan Pinang N31 : Winnerless MCA, listless PMSM leads PR's late charge...

It's Octoberfest in Germany and it turns out to be a "slugfest" in MCA. If MCA's EGM results is taken into account, it seems that MCA is split into 3 factions. Those supporting Ong TK, those rooting for Chua SL and there is the 3rd force whose loyalty is to neither of them.

UPDATE : The polls stations are closed now. The Voters did not come out in full force and most probably falls short of the 80 % target. It is not good for PR...so let's see what the postal votes say. Is this the time for some "magic"? :)

  1. It's Octoberfest in Germany and it turns out to be a "slugfest" in MCA. If MCA's EGM results is taken into account, it seems that MCA is split into 3 factions. Those supporting Ong TK, those rooting for Chua SL and there is the 3rd force whose loyalty is to neither of them.
  2. MCA's EGM effectively ended Ong TK's tenure as MCA's President, dismissing Chua SL as the Deputy President leaving MCA into a chaotic state. Who will take over the Presidency? Whilst the debate is still on, MCA can say farewell to ringing in the votes for Isa Samad in Bagan Pinang....
  3. Najib's launching of Parti Makkal Sakhti Malaysia (PMSM) will not go down well with MIC. In launching the party, Najib said
    "The best way is to cooperate with the government through Makkal Sakti and we can sit down to discuss what needs to be done. This is the best way to build the future, to make the country strong, successful and respected," - Najib
    That statement is neither here nor there. Najib's Makkal Sakhti is open to interpretation. It is not something that PMSM is looking for.
  4. Najib is also silent on the possibility of PMSM joining BN. This may not be acceptable to PMSM and will not be a good selling point in Bagan Pinang.
  5. The 2 above will take care of the Chinese and Indian votes. The past few crucial days is working more to PR's favour, in terms of Chinese and Indian voters.
  6. As for the postal voting, the close scrutiny from polling agents leads to a more transparent voting process. All this is achievable wih PR's constant harping on postal voting shortcomings and possible abuse.
  7. That does not mean that postal voting is totally free from tampering. Although EC has stated that the postal votes will be under the responsibility of the Returning Officer, I would be happier if the postal votes are placed in a time lock safe. Could that be arranged in the future?
  8. The same goes for political campaigning in the army camps. Although the army cited security as the reason for banning political campaign in the camps, it has been recorded that BN has openly campaign in the camps via "official" and unofficial functions. I would rather call for the army head to arrange for allcandidates to present their views and aspirations to the rmy personnel in a specially arranged function in the future. All the candidates will be given an equal airtime to promote themselves. This could be done in the future with co-ordination from the camp commandants. For this, the political supporters will not be allowed in the camps - just the candidates and an equal number of supporting workers. It can be done, isn't it? Must everything be lined out sentence by sentence?
  9. As for the non-postal voters in Bagan Pinang, the mood on election day will tell the story.
  10. EC has warn vote canvassers on the process tomorrow. If both parties adhere to EC's advise, the voting pattern will still be in PR's favour.
  11. Based on past voting pattern, PR should have Bagan Pinang. PR's strong points (or rather BN's weak points) are :-
    • PR's campaign is cohesive, proof of better understanding between DAP-PAS-PKR;
    • PR is able to raised up issues, both local and national such as the infrastructure problems, land issues etc;
    • PR's candidate who is pictured to be people friendly and heads the Broga anti-incinerator project;
    • BN's lack of second echelon leaders and seems to back up tainted candidate;
    • MCA's internal problems and MCA EGM brings the Chinese voters closer to PR;
    • Najib did not promise inclusion of PMSM into BN. This may damper the spirit of PMSM and alienate Indian voters from BN;

  12. However, for continuity sake, BN needs to retain Bagan Pinang. BN's strong points are :-
    • Bagan Pinang is a traditionally BN strong post;
    • Traditional postal votes for BN;
    • Negeri Sembilan is governed by BN;
    • Strong support from BN's national leaders;
    • BN has the full support from MSM, government machinery, independent political analysts etc;
    • More physical presence in Bagan Pinang to "physically" convince the voters;

  13. After looking through the pros and cons, my gut feelings says PR will wrest Bagan Pinang from BN. However, the practical me will say that BN will retain Bagan Pinang but the majority will not be more than 2,000 votes.
  14. If my prediction is true, BN will have a hollow victory. BN's choice of candidate makes it difficult forthe voters to decide. Whilst it is a traditional BN stronghold, the choice of candidate force the voters to not only accept BN but to endorse money politics as a norm. This is dangerous precedent and BN should not have use Bagan Pinang as a test case.
  15. Winning Bagan Pinang will provide Najib's administration the confidence to carry through the projects in both state and national level. It will also provide the catalyst for Najib to come up with people friendly budget. As Najib has openly said before - A win is still a win, the majority is not important. (Think I have heard it before somewhere....)
  16. Winning Bagan Pinang will also give BN the chance to carry out the plans to develop the country. It will give the needed boost for BN to carry out its responsibilities before GE 13. This confidence is needed to steer Malaysia through the economic landmines until GE 13.
  17. For the sake of the nation, let's have a clean by election. No violence, please. We can have the fun but hey...we are Malaysians - violence is not our way of life.
  18. To both BN and PR - good luck...


Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...

11 comments:

sunwayopal said...

Even had the MCA not been divided, the Chinese have already deserted MCA and Gerakan. Foregoone conclusion liao.

This is the best possible result, them kicking out OTK. Remember he is still a MP. I hope he goes Independent.



As for Bagan Pinang, hope for the best. I disagree with Najib. A win is NOT just a win. Lets see if BeeEnd win with just 68 votes (like Manek Urai) all of us can still rejoice, the rakyat is getting behind us !!!!!





sunwayopal
http://www.myrealestate.com.my

nightcaller said...

Sunwayopal,

It's crunch time and my sources are saying that BN wins Bagan Pinan.

sunwayopal said...

It was a long shot anyway :) but we fought the good fight.

Lets see if we can cut their majority down, I think thats the main point, I hope the rakyat is still with us in that the majority is slashed down.






sunwayopal
http://www.myrealestate.com.my

looes74 said...

Nightcaller,
Seem like BN is gonna win big. Punishment to Pakatan not taking up Pro People policies. Some NGO bloggers says that saving KBP would do the trick
I expect round 2 between Mohammad Hassan & Isa Samad for the prize.
I expect Salehuddin press on for the revelation on the postal votes

sunwayopal said...

Hard to see anything positive at all from this result.

Only positive is Isa will b gunning for Mohd Hassan!






sunwayopal
http://www.myrealestate.com.my

nightcaller said...

Sunwayopal, Looes74

Its a good lose...PR should use the lose to pinpoint its weaknesses. Not the time to point fingers.

It is also a good omen for both parties. As I say, BN needs this win to continue with its policies (at least until the next GE) and PR will now learn that it must be a joint effort.

PR is not about a 1 man show. It is also not about a 1 man "mistep". BN make use of its strength and foothold and they dig a deep trench to counter whatever PR has. This time around, PR runs out of ammunition...and falls into BN's trap.

sunwayopal said...

I think the biggest mistake here is to look at this from ONLY a PAS point of view.

We have to look at also the role DAP and PKR played in this whole Bagan Pinang mess.







sunwayopal
http://www.myrealestate.com.my

nightcaller said...

sunwayopal...

If a party cannot learn from its losses, then what else can u say?

Read my latest posting....:)

looes74 said...

Nightcaller,
Yup, it's not the end of the world. Bagan Pinang massacre is like the 1963 GE. During then motley group of oppositions as well as PAP made their foray into Malaysia GE. LKY attracted 10k folks masses at Suleiman court. Yet, PAP candidates loses deposit.
Even since PAP made a Dunkirk retreat leaving the stranded Malaysia PAP behind, they regroup & restrategise. With its motto very similar to Singapore's pledge which I found it to be even more meaningful pledge than the one we have in Malaysia, move on & socre hattrick in 1969 GE
I am not sure about PAS or PKR.....DAP has the ability to reinvent itself. PAS has just done it only recently. It's in the blood to rejuvenate & revitalise. Inheritance from PAP. Strive to survive & succeed.

Guys,
It's not the end.......We shall prevail. Pakatan Rakyat must have a thorough post mortem just as PAP did in 1984 where 12% swing against PAP. Singapore has the cleanest GE every elections.

sunwayopal said...

I would not really agree that statement.

Cleanest ?

The media is also slanted, Courts also freely used against Opposition members sometimes extremely punitive awards. There is also gerry-mandering going on with their version of EC with all these so called 'groups' etc etc etc.

But if your point is to compare with Malaysia EC, then agree, Singapore is 100 times cleaner.



sunwayopal
http://www.myrealestate.com.my

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