Bagan Pinang N31 : Congrats BN, back to the drawing boards for PR....

Now, Najib can start gloating on 14th October 2009. The warlords are back in business. If you don't believe me - just ask Isa Samad.

First, congratulations is in order for BN. Yes ! They win and win big in Bagan Pinang. Although the majority is 5,435 I will stick to my stand as per earlier posting that the actual majority for Bagan Pinang is slightly more than 1,000 (1,313 to be exact) votes. My prediction was BN to retain Bagan Pinang with a majority of not more than 2,000 votes.

Looking at the figures, my prediction is way off, right? Wrong! After omitting the postal votes which is considered 4,122 votes strong for BN (the 601 votes casted for PR is actually a non-issue), the actual majority is 1,313 votes. That's less than 2,000 majority. Does that mean my prediction is right? Hhhmmmmm...that will be how politicians justify their figures and today I am not in the mood to play with figures. Today, let's re-visit Bagan Pinang and try to understand why the results is so....

For that, let's put it into point forms. So, here are my takes :-

1. Candidate

   BN, with its back on the walls have no other choice but to put in Isa Samad. Why? Isa Samad is considered a local there and BN banked on his roots to blank off whatever he had done wrong in the past. BN can't even afford to place Isa' son there as candidate because only Isa's stature is well known there.
   

   PR, on the other hand opted to put in PAS's Negeri's chief as candidate. It might be a right choice to PR leaders but as a strategist, I would stick to Ramli Ismail (unless he has done grave mistake). To me, by sticking to Ramli Ismail, PR will be showing Bagan Pinang that they have made the right choice before and they are offering the same right choice for Bagan Pinang.
   

   PR should have sense the confidence in BN when the so-called aspiring independent candidate "failed" to get his seconder and thus did not submit his nomination papers.
   

2. Money politics

   There are two parts of money politics here.

   • One, involving Isa and leading to his suspension from UMNO and eventually leads to his failure to defend his VP's post;

     Bagan Pinang voters is sending a dangerous signal here. No doubt that Isa is their favourite son, but to a certain extent Bagan Pinang is saying that they are not bothered with the fact that Isa was found guilty of money politics in UMNO. Yes, Isa has not been charged in the court of law and his suspension is only in his party but is Bagan Pinang saying that it is alright to be involved in money politics at party level?
     

     Or is Bagan Pinang rightly sending a message that Isa is not the only one practising money politics in UMNO? If this is Bagan Pinang's stand, then money politics will be a continued tradition in UMNO politics.
     

   • Second is about the "flooding" of Bagan Pinang with financial inducement;

     This is not something unexpected. Most of the ministers visiting Bagan Pinang will pledge this and that, including the elusive swimming pool in the army camp. Bagan Pinang proves once again that the voters just don't care less about the inducement. It is nice to hear and if it materialise, then fine...if not, we can always wait for the promise again in next GE.
     

   Overall, Bagan Pinang is not listening to the hues and cries f money politics. To them, the issue is a distant sound and did not affect them. Thus, they are not bothered with the issue at all...as long as they can get Isa elected as their state rep for Bagan Pinang.
   

3. Intimidation

   I will be crude here. No offence intended. This is what I hear from those returning from Bagan Pinang :-
   

   • there are party workers going into individual houses and intimidate the occupants to vote for their party;
   • some elderly party workers attacked by opponents, leading to bloody ears on the elderly party worker;
   • there are numerous skirmishes between opposing party workers;
   • on polling day, opposing parties continually jaunts each other leading to "missiles" flown from both sides and also skirmishes between two opposing groups;
     

   Let me qualify myself in saying that I am one person who do not subscribe to violence as a mean to get what I want. What I see is another dangerous trend. It reminds me of Ijok where intimidation rules the day. It also recollects what happened in Lubuk Merbau when judgement deserted party workers.

   My question is simple - do we need to resort to violence? Do we live by intimidating others? Couldn't we reason out why voters should support a party? Are we such poor orators that our party workers have to use "physical charm" to get the votes in?
   

   On one part, both parties are to blame. When thousands descended into Bagan Pinang, these genuine voters feel intimidated and choose to cocooned themselves. At the end, the voters feel it is better for them to follow the status quo and hand Bagan Pinang to BN on a silver platter.
   

   That said, whoever caused and promoted intimidation has given that little extra push for the voters to opts for BN in Bagan Pinang. After all, who is going to look after them once the dust settled in Bagan Pinang and when the party workers and the extra police beef left the scene?
   

4. PR's confusing acts

   Some may say that this is irrelevant but I choose to say otherwise. PR's has not been blending well in Selangor with the continual bickerings between Hassan Ali and DAP. I say Hassan Ali because he is the only person coming out with statement after statement, contradicting to PR's wishes and aspirations.
   

   PAS failed to contain Hassan Ali and at the same time did not indicate that they are totally behind Hassan Ali's stand regarding the many issues surrounding PR government in Selangor. With the "not here, neither there" stand, PAS under the leadership of Hadi Awang fails to take a firm stand on those issues.
   

   Granted that PAS and DAP reached some sort of consensus during Bagan Pinang by-election campaign period. However, the consensus appears to be superficial at best. This can be sensed with the lack of "controversies" raised by the controversial Hassan Ali. If only someone in PAS monitors his statements then PAS would have anticipated that they are on the losing end in Bagan Pinang when Hassan Ali did not issue any controversial statement during the campaign period.

5. PR's daily media statement

   As media coverage is scarce for PR, PR's decision to hold daily press conference is a novel idea. However, PR is slow in giving response to the many issues raised during the campaign. Amongst them :-
   

   • EC's response on the postal votes discrepancies;
   • PDRM's response on the alledged attacks by opposition parties;
   • Defense ministry response to the no-campaign policy in army camps;
     

   PAS's daily media conference did not stressed on the point of the alledged attacks and although PAS pointed out that they have lodged 8 police reports, PAS did not offer the police reports for the media's scrutiny especially the one circulating in the internet on the slashed t-shirts and blood trickling down the face.

6. Postal votes

   As the postal votes in Bagan Pinang constitutes to almost 30 % of the total votes, it is a significant votes to both parties.
   

   Postal voting system is something that has been discussed where PR claimed of instances where the soldiers did not vote. PR came out with a few admissions by retired soldiers that they voted en-mass, under the watchful eyes of camp commandants.
   

   Fine! PR make the exposure but when confronting EC, the following happened :-
   

   • the person who make the admission "conveniently" forgot when he voted for the soldiers;
   • although he admitted voting for the rest under his camp's commandant's instructions, he can only remember that it was during Tun Mahathir's time;
   • PR failed to bring supplementary proof of cases where the soldiers registered in 2 voting places.
   • whilst EC agreed that they will check the accussations, PR failed to capitalise on this for better postal voting system
     

7. Development issues and abandoned projects

   PAS is quite late in releasing its by-election manisfesto in Bagan Pinang. Instead of zooming in the current development issues, PAS chose to attack Isa's development and abandoned projects.
   

   In doing so, PAS is exposing itself by going for something in the past. Yes, Isa may be guilty for some of the development issues and abandoned projects but Bagan Pinang voters came to terms with the fact that Isa could not do anything much when his hands were tight. BN pushed him to contest for parliamentary seat against his will and then placed him in cold storage for money politics. Something that were practised by many UMNO politicians. The difference is Isa was caught practising it!
   

   PR could do a better jon if they were to focus on current projects and listed out abandoned projects under Mohd Hassan. Instead, PAS took a 22-year time tunnel journey back to the 80's.

8. Personal life
   

   Here, maybe PR is not totally at fault. During the height of the campaign, some enterprising blogs supposedly Isa's misconduct. This is a grave mistake. Remember back in the 90's when BN use Anwar's supposedly misconduct to dismiss him as the DPM. What happen was an uproar and the Malays rise up questioning the wisdom of exposing such act and publicly humiliating him. The same goes for Isa.
   

   Isa may be wrong. He may be guilty of accusations but as Muslims, is this the way to humilate your own kins and fellow believers? How true is the accusations? Or is it hearsay to discredit Isa? The accusations and naming his supposedly "partner" and providing her background is totally unacceptable (at least to me). This also sways the voters to back Isa.
   

Of course there are other factors contributing to BN's routing PR in Bagan Pinang. If all the factors are listed here, then might as well do a proper paper on this and submit for University doctorate :) Whatever it is, the results are already there. BN got what it needed to stay alive. Maybe, this result will stablise BN more. This result will serve as a reminder to other component parties in BN, in the sense that :-

1. UMNO do not really need other component parties in peninsular Malaysia to survive;
2. UMNO, with its back on the walls, will outdo opposition parties to remain in power;
3. UMNO is sending a signal to MCA that they better clean their own house before UMNO cleans MCA;
4. UMNO is sending another signal to MIC to clean their act or UMNO will take in another Indian-based party (PMSM) to replace MIC which is losing the support of Indians;
5. UMNO is also sending a signal to PPP that they should resolve their own internal bickering as there are no significant contributions made by PPP in Bagan Pinang;
6. UMNO doesn't care whether Gerakan show up in Bagan Pinang or not;
   

For now Najib can breathe easy. PR can continue hyping on his possible connections with the model. As far as Najib is concerned, it is a non-issue in Bagan Pinang. The same goes with reveleatiuons on the carpet-man. It is a hot issue for gossipers but not hot enough to catch Bagan Pinang's voters attention.

BN play it right by maneuvering the polling day to fall on Sunday. The Indians are glued to the Tamil movies whilst the Chinese may be lounging in their homes and the Malays are sweating it out in the open.

UMNO knows the Malays teperaments very well. They play the tune better than PR. When the voters are angry, what UMNO did is to make personal courtesy call, a little pat at the back and the Malays are pecking UMNO's hands. A little bit of "incentive" and some words of encouragements, the Malays are back into UMNO's fold.

Now, Najib can start gloating on 14th October 2009. The warlords are back in business. If you don't believe me - just ask Isa Samad.

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...

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Bagan Pinang N31 : Winnerless MCA, listless PMSM leads PR's late charge...

It's Octoberfest in Germany and it turns out to be a "slugfest" in MCA. If MCA's EGM results is taken into account, it seems that MCA is split into 3 factions. Those supporting Ong TK, those rooting for Chua SL and there is the 3rd force whose loyalty is to neither of them.

UPDATE : The polls stations are closed now. The Voters did not come out in full force and most probably falls short of the 80 % target. It is not good for PR...so let's see what the postal votes say. Is this the time for some "magic"? :)

1. It's Octoberfest in Germany and it turns out to be a "slugfest" in MCA. If MCA's EGM results is taken into account, it seems that MCA is split into 3 factions. Those supporting Ong TK, those rooting for Chua SL and there is the 3rd force whose loyalty is to neither of them.
2. MCA's EGM effectively ended Ong TK's tenure as MCA's President, dismissing Chua SL as the Deputy President leaving MCA into a chaotic state. Who will take over the Presidency? Whilst the debate is still on, MCA can say farewell to ringing in the votes for Isa Samad in Bagan Pinang....
3. Najib's launching of Parti Makkal Sakhti Malaysia (PMSM) will not go down well with MIC. In launching the party, Najib said
   

   "The best way is to cooperate with the government through Makkal Sakti and we can sit down to discuss what needs to be done. This is the best way to build the future, to make the country strong, successful and respected," - Najib

   That statement is neither here nor there. Najib's Makkal Sakhti is open to interpretation. It is not something that PMSM is looking for.
4. Najib is also silent on the possibility of PMSM joining BN. This may not be acceptable to PMSM and will not be a good selling point in Bagan Pinang.
5. The 2 above will take care of the Chinese and Indian votes. The past few crucial days is working more to PR's favour, in terms of Chinese and Indian voters.
   
6. As for the postal voting, the close scrutiny from polling agents leads to a more transparent voting process. All this is achievable wih PR's constant harping on postal voting shortcomings and possible abuse.
   
7. That does not mean that postal voting is totally free from tampering. Although EC has stated that the postal votes will be under the responsibility of the Returning Officer, I would be happier if the postal votes are placed in a time lock safe. Could that be arranged in the future?
8. The same goes for political campaigning in the army camps. Although the army cited security as the reason for banning political campaign in the camps, it has been recorded that BN has openly campaign in the camps via "official" and unofficial functions. I would rather call for the army head to arrange for allcandidates to present their views and aspirations to the rmy personnel in a specially arranged function in the future. All the candidates will be given an equal airtime to promote themselves. This could be done in the future with co-ordination from the camp commandants. For this, the political supporters will not be allowed in the camps - just the candidates and an equal number of supporting workers. It can be done, isn't it? Must everything be lined out sentence by sentence?
   
9. As for the non-postal voters in Bagan Pinang, the mood on election day will tell the story.
   
10. EC has warn vote canvassers on the process tomorrow. If both parties adhere to EC's advise, the voting pattern will still be in PR's favour.
11. Based on past voting pattern, PR should have Bagan Pinang. PR's strong points (or rather BN's weak points) are :-
    • PR's campaign is cohesive, proof of better understanding between DAP-PAS-PKR;
    • PR is able to raised up issues, both local and national such as the infrastructure problems, land issues etc;
    • PR's candidate who is pictured to be people friendly and heads the Broga anti-incinerator project;
    • BN's lack of second echelon leaders and seems to back up tainted candidate;
    • MCA's internal problems and MCA EGM brings the Chinese voters closer to PR;
    • Najib did not promise inclusion of PMSM into BN. This may damper the spirit of PMSM and alienate Indian voters from BN;
      

12. However, for continuity sake, BN needs to retain Bagan Pinang. BN's strong points are :-
    • Bagan Pinang is a traditionally BN strong post;
    • Traditional postal votes for BN;
    • Negeri Sembilan is governed by BN;
    • Strong support from BN's national leaders;
    • BN has the full support from MSM, government machinery, independent political analysts etc;
    • More physical presence in Bagan Pinang to "physically" convince the voters;
      

13. After looking through the pros and cons, my gut feelings says PR will wrest Bagan Pinang from BN. However, the practical me will say that BN will retain Bagan Pinang but the majority will not be more than 2,000 votes.
14. If my prediction is true, BN will have a hollow victory. BN's choice of candidate makes it difficult forthe voters to decide. Whilst it is a traditional BN stronghold, the choice of candidate force the voters to not only accept BN but to endorse money politics as a norm. This is dangerous precedent and BN should not have use Bagan Pinang as a test case.
15. Winning Bagan Pinang will provide Najib's administration the confidence to carry through the projects in both state and national level. It will also provide the catalyst for Najib to come up with people friendly budget. As Najib has openly said before - A win is still a win, the majority is not important. (Think I have heard it before somewhere....)
    
16. Winning Bagan Pinang will also give BN the chance to carry out the plans to develop the country. It will give the needed boost for BN to carry out its responsibilities before GE 13. This confidence is needed to steer Malaysia through the economic landmines until GE 13.
    
17. For the sake of the nation, let's have a clean by election. No violence, please. We can have the fun but hey...we are Malaysians - violence is not our way of life.
    
18. To both BN and PR - good luck...
    

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are... Read More

Bagan Pinang N31 : The "cow heads" are coming to town...

The beauty of travelling in mass transportation and being "anon" is here today.

1. The beauty of travelling in mass transportation and being "anon" is here today.
2. On one of those public transportation, had the luck to be seated next to an UMNO youth active member. How so? Well, he's proudly wearing the blue UMNO round teeshirt. That is not important but what comes next should be of some substance.
3. Along the way, this guy make a phone call and urge the other party to be prepared to go down to Bagan Pinang to present their "side" of the story. And why is it important for the other party to make way to Bagan Pinang? He is one of the six charged in Shah Alam court regarding the cow head debacle.
4. One thing that catch my mind is that the caller preferred to make the trip in a group. Why? Getting scared of being "Azeezed"?
   
5. The caller voice lowered considerably when he noticed that there were some non-Malays on board and thus shorten his call.
6. Another thing that shocked me is the nickname he used to call his friend. "Monyet", that's the word he use. Is this what UMNO/BN trained their youth? When parents log all out to give a nice name to their children, their peers opts to call the guy "monyet". What a pity. If this is the trend of UMNO youth, no doubt UMNO/BN is going down. They just failed to produce good and clean leaders.
   
7. Back to the topic - do UMNO think that by roping in the "cow heads" , they can sway the votes? Honestly, the strategy may backfire on them. It is better for UMNO/BN to remain silent on the issue.
8. Then, there are reports that PR is not doing that bad in postal votes. Is BN/UMNO losing their hold in postal votes? If UMNO is thinking that they can fight it out alone in Bagan Pinang, they will be in a surprise this 11th October 2009.
   
9. MCA members are too engrossed in their EGM and whatever happen on 10th October 2009 will have a significant bearing in Bagan Pinang. Whichever group losing out in Bagan the EGM will definitely be "no-show" in Bagan Pinang. That said, the Chinese votes will be comfortably be PR's.
10. There is also a new sense of concern for some when youths brigade from both opposing camps are making their way to Bagan Pinang. I appealed to both sides to refrain from provocation. Malaysians have better things to do than infighting.
11. By the way, TV3 just flash the news of police making a statement that the alledge beating and hurt to a PAS youth member is false. For the sake of justice, I hope that the police makes the right statement and hope that both sides to stop wild accussations that worsen the scenario.
12. It is also nice to mingle amongst the crowd and stay unknown...heh heh heh....
    

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are... Read More

Bagan Pinang N31 : No instruction = nothing happen? Pleaaseee....

He said he never instructed UMNO youth to take agressive action against PAS youth.

1. Deputy UMNO President, Muhyiddein Yassin makes an interesting comment. He said he never instructed UMNO youth to take agressive action against PAS youth. In the report picked up by Malaysiakini, Muhyiddein said :-
   
   
   • he never instructed UMNO youth to take agressive action against AS youth;
   • he said that the allegation is just PAS psychological warfare in Bagan Pinang by-election;
   • he said it is head of PAS youth who called for jihad (holy war) in Bagan Pinang;
   
   
2. Muhyiddein's statement is true to a point. It is half-truth statement which is the norm of politicians. Why?
   
   
   • So far, nobody is saying that Muhyiddein issue the instruction. So, why is he so defensive? A blogger, camped in Bagan Pinang wrote that they intercepted a message calling for registered Pekida members in Peninsular Malaysia to mass in Bagan Pinang;
     
   • A blogger, Perisik Rakyat, posted few photos of PAS youth members injured by UMNO youth. You can see the pictures there and judge yourself (Being a basically non-violent guy, the pictures are not posted here);
   • The police commented that no police report was lodged on the incident and so they could not investigate. I am sure the injured person seek treatment in a government hospital and thus the policeman on duty there should have proceeded to record the report;
   • Muhyiddein also failed to explain to the reporters the the full scope of the word jihad. Must Jihad be equated to holy war equated to violence? Isn't Jihad (holy war) also covers the inner war (in our own self) between good deeds and evil sins?
   • Now, do Muhyiddein really feels that he UMNO youth listen to him and him alone? Must all activities reported to him? I am sure the UMNO youth and Putra UMNO as well as Putri UMNO and women wings have their own agenda and their own programme. That said, Muhyiddein is "guilty" of acting "naive"?
   • UMNO youth is under KJ and Negeri Sembilan is KJ's territory. KJ has better control of UMNO youth than Muhyiddein. In short, please stop hoodwinking the people.
     

Now that Nik Aziz in in town, the election fever is getting up another notch...Is BN ready to lose Bagan Pinang now?

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are... Read More

Al- Fatihah : Azman Mohd Noor

Bagan Pinang state representative, Azman Mohd Noor 55 years of age passed away this afternoon.

Our condolence to the family. Al fatihah

For teaser, please note that the postal votes for Bagan Pinang is 4,925 which is up and over the 2,333 majority.

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are... Read More