Does Terengganu still need Ahmad Said?

Its smoking in Selangor but the real fire is in Terengganu. Whilst Najib has openly declared that he wanted BN to replace PR in running Selangor, things are getting hot in Terengganu.

Its smoking in Selangor but the real fire is in Terengganu. Whilst Najib has openly declared that he wanted BN to replace PR in running Selangor, things are getting hot in Terengganu.

The recently concluded state assembly sitting does not help either when Terengganu's gang of nine sat silently through the 2-day assembly prompting Muhyiddein to fly out to Terengganu to diffuse talks of possible mass defection from the group. However, Muhyiddein's presence does not solve the long brewing animosity against Ahmad Said. Muhyiddein's offer to mediate between the two groups seems to fall on deaf ears. Is it too late for BN now?

10 days on, reports leaked out that Ahmad Said decline Najib's offer to make him a senator and a minister. It has been widely rumoured that Najib will re-shuffle his cabinet after the coming Raya and Ahmad Said's name has been mentioned as one of the options available to resolve the Terengganu crisis. What Najib failed to comprehend is that Ahmad Said just could not blindly accept Najib's offer as Ahmad Said's appointment to the post of MB Terengganu was strongly backed by the palace. Ahmad Said just could not walked away like that.

For record purposes, Ahmad Said's ascendence to the post of MB Terengganu is purely coincidental. After GE 12, the writings are already on the wall for Idris Jusoh to step down as he had step on HRH Sultan's foot one time too many. Apart from that, Idris has became increasingly big-headed and thought that he ruled Terengganu, by-passing the palace in many occassions in his quest to please AAB. Ahmad Said is in because he did not openly backed Idris Jusoh like the group of 9 who went to the extent of defying the palace instructions. And taht is why members of the group of 9 can forget of any hopes to become the nextr MB of Terengganu.

For now, even if Ahmad Said choose to accept Najib's offer, there is no guarantee that the palace can accept his replacement easily if the replacement comes from the group of 9. Another catch 22 situation in Terengganu for BN? It shall be further noted that Ahmad Said has been increasingly isolated and it is believed that 18 out of 25 BN ADUNs are against him continuing his tenure as the MB of Terengganu. It is a rather sticky position for BN Terengganu now.

Ahmad Said's growing frustration can be detected when he openly criticised JKKK for failing to dispense their responsibilities. Signs of frustration and desperation on Ahmad Said's part. Of late, Ahmad Said's RM 8.3M spending to distribute dates and zam zam water to 300,000 houses in Terengganu has also been questioned. Distributing goodies during the fasting month is a kind gesture on the state government part but leaving the goodies at the gates of houses is not. What happen if there is no occupants? Or if someone else took the goodies? If BN workers can spare the time to visit each household during elections, can't they spend the same time to distribute the goodies? Can't Ahmad Said instruct the state officials to distribute the goodies? We haven't calculate the cost yet. Isn't RM 8.3M a lot of money? It works out to RM 27.66 per household and that RM 27 gives them a packet of dates and a bottle of Zam Zam water.

In Mydin, a bottle of Zam Zam water cost RM 6.90 and a packet of dates can be anything between RM 10 to RM 15. That means the government should be spending RM 21.90 maximum for each household and if you were to take a wholesale price discount of 20 %, the goodies should be costing RM 17.50 per household or RM 5.25M. What happen to the balance RM 3M? Hari raya goodies for cronies, perhaps? Ahmad Said should come up with a credible defense regarding this issue...

Back to the core issue, why is Ahmad Said still holding on to the MB's post? No doubt that the previous palace backing is one of the main reasons but Ahmad Said should take the time to fully assess his situation and his options. This is no longer about an individual by the name of Ahmad Said. It has transcended beyond BN and the people of Terengganu. Consider these :-

1. Terengganu has lost 2 deputy ministerial post in early 2009 when Datuk Razali passed away and Wan Farid lost his senatorship in his bid to defend Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat. Since then, Najib has not appointed anybody from Terengganu to fill the post (or rather the quota?);
2. If Ahmad Said accept the offer to be federal minister, will it be acceptable to UMNO Terengganu since Ahmad Shabery Chik (the other Terengganu federal minister) is from the same division as Ahmad Said?
   
3. Ahmad Said has lost the confidence of BN ADUNs. It is widely believed that 18 out of 25 BN ADUNs are against him. What does that leave him?;
4. Ahmad Said has not called for meetings with the group of 9 to diffuse the animosity between them. Is there a silent warfare going on amongst BN reps in Terengganu?;
5. Ahmad Said has bypassed BN ADUNs in selecting JKKK and other state-appointed posts. Why and for what reasons?;
6. Ahmad Said has been distributing projects to his cronies, reminiscence of the time when he was an EXCO under previous state governments. Will there be any report against him in MACC?;
7. Ahmad Said has been known to be hot-tempered and has on various times issue challenges to opposition members to fight it out outside the state assembly. Is he going to continue doing that and keep his notoriety?;
8. Lukewarm reception to Muhyiddein's visit by BN ADUNs indicated that the issue is getting out of hand. Did Muhyiddein report this to Najib?;
9. Hishamuddein Hussein's appointment as Terengganu UMNO liason chief is an indication that Ahmad Said has failed in his duties as Terengganu's liason's chief. So far what has Hishamuddein did to diffuse the internal squabblings?;
10. Hishamuddein's appointment of new UMNO state secretary, treasurer indicates that Ahmad Said is losing control of UMNO Terengganu. So who is really running UMNO Terengganu now?;
11. If mass defection of UMNO ADUNs happen, then Terengganu may be the next PR-controlled government. Is Najib ready to accept that fact?;
12. If Terengganu becomes PR-governed state, then the federal government will no longer have any plausible excuse to block the oil royalty payment to Terengganu (to PR government). Will UMNO Terengganu once again appealled for the federal govt to withold the oil royalty money?;
13. If mass defection happens, who will be the next MB? Hadi Awang? Harun Taib? Any member from the group of 9? Syed Azman? Will the palace accept the new government? Will Ahmad Said go for state assembly dissolution?

The various probabilities and possibilities are endless. However, for the sake of Terengganu, the possible amicable solution to this whole mess are :-

1. Ahmad Said retires completely from politics. Then Najib can offer him a post as an ambassador to one of ASEAN countries;
2. As BN ADUNs will probably vehemently oppose to idea of PR ADUN becoming MB, and PR ADUNs may be reluctant to go against the palace, the better solution is for both BN and PR to work on an acceptable third apolitical fugure to be the MB. There are many apolitical figures accepted by both PR and BN and this person can run the state for the next 2 years on coalition government basis. This is a really wild idea but it can be done if the ADUNs place the state above their political idealogies;
3. For that to happen, the EXCO composition shall be in favour of BN (70 : 30);
4. If the parties could not accept this, then let the palace work out the solution ;

Najib and BN could not afford to lose Terengganu at this stage. At the same time, Najib cannot afford to have a fragmented BN in Terengganu. Najib needs to spend more time in working out strategies to maintain Perak and re-capture Kedah and Selangor. As such, Najib cannot afford to have a headache by the name of Terengganu.

Hishamuddein has so far failed to resolve UMNO Terengganu's internal bickerings. Muhyiddein came and saw and still failed to resolve the fractionalism. Najib heard but could not offer an acceptable solution. So, it's time for yours truly to dish out crazy ideas. Afterall, when Obama started and state his decision to run for USA President, they think it's a crazy idea too but it works. So why not give it a go?

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...