Monday, May 17, 2010

Of numbers, fumblers, singers and ...EC



The delay in announcing the results for P 212 Sibu by-election is technically contributed to the numbers game. Let's not waste time and go straight into it...

Numbers don’t lie. Yet, there are many things that we can learn from numbers. Sibu is just one of them…Some may be celebrating their win with kampua mee and some may be drowning their loss in tuak. I know of one who may be smiling in Sibu with his pipe...

The delay in announcing the results for P 212 Sibu by-election is technically contributed to the numbers game. Let's not waste time and go straight into it...

  1. Wong HL of DAP garnered 18,845 against BN's Robert Lau's 18,447 and Narawi Haron independent finished last with 232 votes. A majority of 398 votes;
  2. There were 2,537 postal votes and 395 spoilt votes, out of which 208 comes from postal votes;
  3. The majority of 398 constitutes to 1.06% of total counted votes and this is the dangerous part. Why? A vote recount can be done if the majority is 1 % or less of total counted votes. And this is where the problem lies;
  4. If 208 of the spoilt postal votes were recognised as BN's or independents, then at that period of time, EC may go for recount because the majority will be at 0.81 % (if all the spoilt votes goes to the independent candidate). If the spoilt votes goes to BN, then the majority will be less than 398 and it will be a far worse scenario;
  5. Is that the reason why EC was delaying the announcement? It was fortunate that ASTRO 501 carried the event live and you will see how the returning officer is not at his "mode" to announce the result. The RO, Mong See Meng, looked puzzled and confused to the extent that he even announce Robert Lau's vote as "Lapan belas ribu empat ribu empat puluh tujuh" instead of "Lapan belas ribu empat ratus empat puluh tujuh";
  6. In P212 by-election, 37,524 votes were counted against 2008's 35,853 voters who voted then. There is an increase of 1,671 votes during the by-election;
  7. There is a voters' swing of approximately 3,633 towards PR-DAP (3,325 2008 majority + 398 by-election majority);
  8. EC initially announced that 32,742 (59.86 %) voter turnout which was reported in the Sun but later revised the figure to 70 % voter turnout. EC never satisfactorily explain the 10.14 % difference in their reporting. How did EC report 2 different figures of 5,177 votes? That's a lot of votes and can reverse the results!
  9. EC has also forecasted that the voter turnout should be hovering around 80 % which should be around 43,756 which is another possible additional of 6,232 votes. This too may affect the outcome of the election.

Enough with numbers. EC decided to play tough and did not recognise MAFREL as one of the election watchdog. Fine! EC should be proving why election watch dogs are unnecessary by being transparent in their work. Obviously something is definitely not right when the postal votes held back the announcement. Postal votes are the first to be casted and first to arrive to EC office. So, why is it the last to be counted? Can EC explain the rationale and the logic behind this?

EC's inconsistencies in announcing voter turnout percentage is also puzzling. Why the difference of 10 %? Is the EC chairman properly and constantly updated or is he relying on stone-age technology? Heck! Our EC Chairman was there in UK to monitor the election there and yet he make a mockery of himself with the figures. There is so much diffference between a low voter turn out and a better voter turn out. It is better for the EC Chairman to keep mum if he did not know the exact final voter turn out figure! Unless, he wants to start a controversy of some sort...

Sibu has decided and all parties should abide by their decision. Moving on...

Fumblers? Yeah, there is no such word in the dictionary, or is there? For now, let's take fumbler(s) as the one who fumbles in Sibu.

Top of the list should be 1MPM6 Najib himself. His "You help me, I help you" speech in Sibu on the final night is a classic fumble. It really borders on breaching the election rules. How can one say that and tied a RM 5M carrot to the voters of Sibu? Is it not the government's responsibility to ensure the welfare of its citizens? Isn't Sibu part of Malaysia and as such the federal government and the state government's responsibility to take care of their welfare including flood mitigation? It is truly embarassing to see and listen to 1MPM6 Najib uttering those words in the hope of winning over their votes. Does 1M stands for 1 Malaysia or does it stands for 1 Money? Najib should get his priorities right and stop putting conditions for our welfare. It is, afterall, our basic needs and not a luxury!

BN really shoots their own feet when they side-stepped "white hair" Taib Mahmud in P 212. This is "white hair" territory and BN should treat it as such. Easing out "white hair" in P 212 is not the answer. "White hair" may be a burden but BN forgets that he is an asset in Melanau and Iban areas. By ommiting "white hair", BN is making it easy for PR to make inroads to the Melanaus and Ibans and along the way may have bagged those telling 398 votes! Now, Taib Mahmud can say squarely to 1MPM6 - "if you can say to Rejang Park - you help me, I help you; the same can be said to you, Mr PM - you by-pass me and I will by-pass you". Najib needs to do serious soul searching - is BN ready to fall in Sarawak or will BN gamble on "white hair" to retain Sarawak?

Someone asked - what about Alfred Jabu? Well! Alfred Jabu is one of the current deputy chief minister of Sarawak. His role is to contain the Dayaks' vote in BN. Alfred Jabu does not carry out his duties well enough. Result - Sibu fell. Maybe Alfred Jabu is better off by changing his name to Alfred Jambu...then maybe he will be more marketable. Sibu's loss will make it much difficult for Alfred Jabu to take over fom Taib Mahmud.

BN also belittle the independent candidate. This is another suicidal move by BN. What BN should have done is to "convince" Narawi to dropped out of the race. That would have bought BN the crucial 232 votes and narrow the gap with PR's Wong HL. But, No...BN is too high and mighty when they choose to ignore pesky Narawi. It is BN's fumble for letting Narawi into the equation. Then, there is always the question - what if Narawi quit the race and all of his 232 votes go BN's way? Will that force BN/PR DAP/EC to meticulously go through the 208 spoilt postal votes? It will be interesting if that happens last night ...but it never did, all because of BN's sheer arrogance! Just imagine a possible swing of 232 + 208 votes which will add up to 440 which further can leads to a wafer thin 42 vote BN majority win in P 212! That did not happen, all thanks to BN's election machinery which opted to pledges millions to the wrong person (s)... Alas! that chance dissipated on 10th May 2010...

Let's stop with another fumble, the last one here but not necessarily the last one in reality - that of splashing monies to the national type schools and missionary schools. What BN did is none other than to hurt the sensitivities of those hardworking donours who built the school from their own sweat and tears. Just because of the P 212 by-election, BN came in with bags of monies to buy off their hardwork. Isn't that insulting? There are better ways to approach the schools like offering more teachers, books for the libraries, courses for the present teachers etc. BN do not do that, BN choose to parachute in with bags of monies. Money in the bag does not equal to votes in the ballot boxes!

Singers? It's not surprising for BN to engage Jamal Abdillah to perform in Sibu. It will also not be surprising if BN choose to coax AF/Mentor/Imam Muda and the likes to beam from Sibu. That's BN's expertise and BN likes to party...but for Rosmah to sing two songs in Sibu? Apa ke bende nie?

Rosmah aka Mrs Najib herself had professed that she is not a politician. If so, what the hell is she doing in Sibu? She further claimed that she wanted to help out BN by singing - the truth is, it is better for her to zip her mouth. Maybe that 398 win is contributed by her singing...

Rosmah has better things to do if she really wants to. She should be talking to JJ, Rais, Najib to retract the "first lady of Malaysia" advertisement. If she did that before 16th may 2010, maybe it will be a turning point to BN. Alas! Rosmah is too proud to retract the advertisemen and for that BN stumbles in Sibu. It might be a good idea for PR to suggest Mrs Najib to start singing on BN stage in all upcoming by-elections to continue BN's losing streak... Look! Mrs Najib did not sing in Hulu Selangor. Why is she so itchy bitchy wanting to sing in Sibu? Is it because Mrs Rais Yatim is prodding her on? Birds of a feather will indeed flock together.... Muhyiddin should seriously look ito Mrs Rais factor if he still wants to remain the DPM.

Whatever it is, EC should buck up now. There are too many shortcomings that needs immediate remedial actions. Amongst others :-

  1. Clearly, the EC personnel needs re-training. The RO looked confused and oddly out of place;
  2. With Sarawak state election on the horizon, EC needs to ensure that all of its personnel are thoroughly briefed on the electoral procedures;
  3. EC personnel should be unbias. There are reports of EC personnel becoming over zealous when it comes to opposition party flages but hardly raised an eye for the same offense done by the ruling party;
  4. EC should come up with standard operating procedure on what, when, how, why, who, where;
  5. EC should be sending their personnel for public relation exercise. Better solutions and amicable situation can be created by just a friendly smile, something EC Chairman id devoid of;
  6. EC can list their preferred election watchdog committees who will provide their independent report on by-elections and general elections. These will be helpful to EC;
  7. For now, let's just hope that EC "breaks" the ice and call both ruling and opposition parties to a "get to know" party and take that opportunity to brief them on EC roles and collect positive feedbacks from the political parties.
Should the list go on? Nah...EC's chairman knows better. It is only that he choose the wrong choice and adapt the wrong approach for Sibu. He can always improvise in the coming rounds...

Numbers, fumblers, singers... what's the solution? Truthfully there are solutions on what BN can do to arrest the slide especially when BN Sarawak has to dissolve the state assembly by November 2011. 1 Year is a short time and there are many things need to be corrected in Sarawak. Sibu proves that national issues are as important as local issues. That said, BN should be thinking many times before proceeding with GST bill.

There are voices on the ground that BN will push for GST by 2011. If indeed that is true, BN is giving BN Sarawak their kiss of death as the issue will be used to the hilt by PR. That's one free advise for BN. On the rest....hey what do you think? There is nothing as free meals, you know!

If BN can pay RM 76M to APCO, shouldn't they do the same plus some more to save BN from losing Sarawak en route to losing Putrajaya? Even if BN decided to do so, do you think NC will take up the responsibility to advise BN? Fat chance! BN will do much better to approach KJ's "self appointed" Minister of Finance or swallow their pride and sit down with Muay Thai fighter combined with "veteran" Aspan of Subang Jaya. Maybe then, it will be a Ronin war worth watching... strategy vs strategy, I love that!

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...

14 comments:

looes74 said...

Having problems with network. Heard Adun Kerdau is in coma. Another By Election

nightcaller said...

Looes74

Me too! Network connection at snail pace. Still no by-election yet...it is just slipping in coma...

looes74 said...

Nightcaller,
Well, can't find any latest news on the Kedah pow wow. I believe that Azizan has managed the whole issue under good hands. Of course, just like Nobisha, I have reservations on him.
I believe SPR is gonna have heart attack very soon. With Kota Siputeh in the pipeline, this Kerdau seat can be a massive "explosion". Kota Siputeh would be the payback time from PAS Kedah to UMNO. Kerdau, perhaps, liek Manek Urai.
Of course, I sincerely hope that Adun Kerdau will receover soon. However, it would be better for him to retire to pave way for by election

looes74 said...

Nightcaller,
Well got official news that Kedah state government remains stable. Tan Chow Kang was the first speaker. The other 2 PKR as well as DAP is there too. I don't have issues with Manikumar (handpicked by Anwar). As for Lim Soo Nee, well I am happy he has made a firm decision. Just wanna see how he say
The other Tan fella's response is different whenever being asked if he leaves. & he leave.

Dnightcaller,
You see one can tell if these people would leave. I knew from the beginning That Wee Wee boy would leave.

nightcaller said...

Lppes74

Heartening to know about Kedah's stability.

Or maybe BN can't afford another Perak! Whatever it is, they have come out openly to support PR's state government and all parties should respect their decision. Period.

I am with you on Kerdau. It is better for him to take his leave early. Prolonging it will not be good to his heart, thus it's better for him to make way. But, BN will not let it happen, will they?

To BN, Kerdau should stay put and will only be allowed to resign in 2012 to avoid by-election (when EC need not call for by-election if GE is less than 1 year when the vacancy takes place).

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