Friday, May 10, 2013

Of needles and needling...

Wooohhh... (relief). Azmin Ali did not make any "hot" announcement dreaded by both PKR and PR. However... I sense more things will happen in the near future...I see Azmin Ali in a dilemma. He is sulking because he cannot gets what he wants. If what he wanted is not the MB post in Selangor, then he must be blaming PR for failing to achieve a simple majority in the recently-concluded GE 13. With PR not achieving a minimum of 112 parliamentary seats, Azmin Ali has to bade farewell for the conveted post of DPM.

There are talks across town that Azmin Ali has a dozen or so supporters in the form of newly minted MPs'. He may use this as a bargaining chip with 1MPM6 as a trade off for these BN-friendlies. Afterall, BN is short f 15 MP's to pass the 2/3 majority mark.

At the same time, Azmin Ali has to search his soul as PR may appeal in 30 parliamentary seats. If the court happens to be in their favour, we may see a new government within the next 6 months or alternatively we may see by-elections within that time or a final alternative is for a snap elaction, if 1MPM6 Najib has the guts. But, if PR lose the appeal, it will be back to present day situation where BN cannot breathe easy and Azmin Ali's "share value" will certainly be of blue chip value.

Now, who can predict Najib's near future? A friend mentioned that Najib is using Mahathir's approach ie 1 vote majority still makes him a winner. That said, Najib is trying hard to cling to his last "lifeline" ie Mahathir Mohamed. Najib is ever willing to do a yoga magic and re-appoints Ahmad Said as Terengganu's MB when he was seen live in TV seething at BN Terengganu's poor performance on 5th May 2013.

Me? I am more interested to see how EC will go about with their 10 year cycle of delienation. There are few catchwords in the delienation pocess :-

  1. Election petitions must be filed within 21 days of gazetted polls result;
  2. Mandatory of 2 years deadline for delienation process to be completed;
  3. After the delienation exercise, EC needs 2/3 majority support to approve the new constituencies boundaries;
  4. EC guidelines states that for urban parliemantary constituencies, voter population shall be more than 60,000 with an area of 8 ~ 49 sz km;
  5. For semi-urban parliementary constituencies,  voter population shall be within 30,000 to 60,000 with an area from 50 ~ 250 sq km;
  6. For rural parliementary constituencies, voter population shall be less than 30,000 with an area of more than 250 sq km;
The question - will EC still get its way in the coming months when they go for delienation exercise? And what if parliemnt could not give 2/3 approval for EC's delieanation exercise? Will it be hanging? That, my friends why PR must go at all cost to deny BN the 2/3 majority and that is also the same reason why BN is fighting tooth and nail to get 2/3 majority in parliament. That is where Azmin Ali comes in to fit the puzzle.

1MPM6 Najib could no longer rely on Ibrahim Ali or Zul Noordin as they are nor considered as junk metal. Najib could not rest easy since Sabah/Sarawak has 42 parliementary seats as their bargaining tools. Worse, Johor has 38 parliamentary seats to get Najib ousted. Right now, Najib is thorn between three parties, Azmin wants to be Senior MInister if he throws his lot for Najib, Sabah/Sarawak may ask for 20 % oil royalty since they are the real kingmaker whilst JOhor may loves to see Johor-born PM in the near future.

With 46.5 % popular vote, Najib no longer commands the majority and at the same time realise how his deputy is sharpening his knife whilst Sabah/Sarawak is counting the money from their Royalty demand.

I will not like to be in Najib's shoes now and worse still, when your house manager wants to do her way which creates problems to Najib.

Think about that...

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...


Pak Zawi said...

Like you, I would rather sleep easy and not be the PM of Malaysia at the moment. That is only if I don't have any skeletons to hide in my closet.

nightcaller said...

Pak Zawi..

Skeletons in the closet? How long will it stays?

Najib is having restless nights, who to pick as DPM, who to pick as Finance Minister etc. Afterall, Najib is not a one-man show guy