Najib can afford to forego March 2012 as Parliament will be sitting during the time. March 2012 will also see the King installed as YDP Agung. Najib could not afford to have GE 13 in August as Muslims will be fasting during the time. That leaves Najib with April - July window. Najib needs to neutralise damage done out of her trip to Australia. That will take at least 1 month, enough time for Najib to despatch Shoorizat to US of A to replace JJ.
The question of the year will be when will GE 13 be held. No matter how tough it looks, 1MPM6 Najib has to make his decision now and planned for that GE 13 which will either make him or break him.
Before that, let's revisit some of the recent events which may determine the outcome of GE 13. Why recent? Well! isn't it Mahathir who once announced that "Melayu mudah lupa"? He said that in 2001 and 10 years on, it is "Malaysians easily forget"...
Remember 9th January 2012? For PR supporters, it is the day where Anwar was acquitted from sodomy II, breathing in fresh energy to their aspiration to dethrone BN. For Perkasa, it is the day when only 50 turn up in Masjid Wilayah in support of the fool. For BN, it is one of those rare ocassions where they just could not influence the outcome of the judgement!
That's not all, on the sidelines of 9th January 2012 is the three explosions that cut short PR's supporters celebration. After 2 weeks there are still no progress on the investigation. Is it really so? Is PDRM really on top of the case or is the case to be stamped "Unsolved mystery"? Sometimes, Malaysians have to turn to coffeeshop talk for some leads, and to get an unofficial account of what is going on. The problem is, most of the coffee shop talk will ends in fisherman's tale ie a 1 paragraph story exaggerated into a tele-novel complete with scoops and snoops.
2 weeks ago, I chanced on a food supplier cum contractor cum GERAK-KAN (tak Gerak, tak makan) believer who is happy with the 9th January 2012 event. He was requested to provide part of the rations to those police personnel who were called to duty to man the streets on 9th January 2012. At that time, he has discounted that the explosion is planted by PR supporters.
2 weeks on, the same food supplier claimed that the explosive device is too sophisticated and only an explosive expert is capable of planting the explosive. He again discounted PR supporters and this time struck off Perkasa from his suspect list. He then continue ramblings on the probabilities... something that goes along the Hollywood script. In short, he believed that PDRM is zooming in on the explosive-maker but the bigger question - will PDRM and the AG's office charge him or will not take any action to the explosive maker? Does he act alone or is he under instruction? If he is under instruction, will the Director of Operations charged along with him or will it be another Razak Baginda?
If 9th January 2012 is about Anwar, 9th December 2011 is about ABU (Anything but UMNO). Now, ABU is non-political in nature although they are, for the time being, pro PR. Being an NGO of sorts, is there any need to disrupt ABU event?
Whilst there are some unsettling video on youtube showing the fracas, the blame lies to both the organisers and the provocateurs. Did the organisers inform the police of their event? If yes, then where are the police when the fracas happened? If not, then did ABU thinks that they are above the law to hold anon-police sanctioned event?
I blame the big man in black for deliberately messing up Hindraf/ABU's newsletter stacks but I equally blame the organiser for failing to reason with the big man in black. I blame the boys with sticks who traumatised those present in the hall. Tame the sticks away and what will those boys be?
I read in another blog about Hindraf disrespecting Mahgrib prayers. Is this so? If it is, then I will not blame those guys for disrupting ABU/Hindraf event. However, there is all possibility that the blogger is UMNO's cybertrooper. Whatever it is, there are threats and violence. Is this an indication of what to come in GE 13?
So when is GE 13? It has been a public secret that school halls has been identified as ballot centres and it is also another public secret that the armed personnel's leaves has been freeze meaning the police and the army could not go on holidays unless critically necessary.
1MPM6 should know that the parliament will automatically dissolve on 8th March 2013 unless he is mentally retarded to think that the parliament 5-year term will ends on 3rd April 2014, 5 years after he took over Abdullah Badawi's place as PM.
Najib could not afford to hold GE 13 after September 2012 as that will be an open market for UMNO leaders to fight for divisional posts and this will potentially lead to serious UMNO infighting or maybe Najib's ouster as UMNO's president!
Najib can afford to forego March 2012 as Parliament will be sitting during the time. March 2012 will also see the King installed as YDP Agung. Najib could not afford to have GE 13 in August as Muslims will be fasting during the time. That leaves Najib with April - July window. Najib needs to neutralise damage done out of her trip to Australia. That will take at least 1 month, enough time for Najib to despatch Shoorizat to US of A to replace JJ.
Between May and July, the school holidays will be from 26th May to 10th June. Looking at the calendars, 1MPM6 Najib will choose 3rd June 2012 as GE 13. If that happens then we will either see PR taking over Putrajaya or we will see RosCTmah making more trips to New York and Sydney to splash money in her effort to befriend Michelle Obama...
Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...
The King and U
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*The King and U-Mobile and the tale of two brave Hassans*
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