Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Numbers game 2-7, 7-1, overall 9-8..what it means...

Finally, let's summarise the result and you will get BN 9 against PR's 8. The numbers show that BN has the upper hand in this game. PR should not be hoodwinked in thinking that the road to Putrajaya is clear. BN has many more traps laid along the way.

UPDATE : A reader and commenter, Sunwayopal, pointed out about the 2 MPs' who left BN via SAPP's decision to sit out of BN. Sunwayopal quoted

NC,
Fair enough. But what abt BeeEnd lost the 2 MPs from Sabah. The 2 from SAPP.
Although they didnt join Pakatan, but they are certainly out of BeeEnd right?
If you class Ibrahim as a +1 for BeeEnd, these 2 surely counts as +2 for Pakatan ?

Taken the new numbers in, it shall be 2-7, 7-3, overall 9-10 in favour of PR. Thks Sunwayopal for pointing out my "political amnesia" :)

  1. For some, today's MACC blitz is something to shout about. Nazri said MACC is colour blind. So far, the number stands at 5 and I am not complaining...the more, the better and merrier.
  2. My numbers today is not about MACC, it is going to be some simple observation that I feel some bloggers and MSM miss. Let's look at the figures, OK?
  3. For clarity, let's use alphabetical order in deriving to the numbers.
  4. 2 -7 means BN 2, PR 7. This, most knew that it represents the total numbers of seats won by BN in the current by-election season. BN manage to retain Batang Ai and Bagan Pinang whilst losing the rest to PR.
  5. Now, let's go to more interesting numbers. 7-1. BN 7, PR1. How do I get that figure? Simple...This category represents those who jump ships or shift their allegiance. Where does BN 7 comes from? Well...first is Pasir Mas MP. He chose to be BN friendly although he has been kicked out from UMNO. He won the parliamentary seat, courtesy of PAS Kelantan.

    What makes him leaned towards BN? I will say that this Prince of frogs chose the path because of his lack of confidence of PKR de-factor leader. Apart from that, he played an intelligent game whereby BN has to fall back to him for crucial votes in parliament. Alas, although he has openly declared that he is BN-friendly, there are those in BN camps who goes all out to discredit him because accepting him into BN fold will jeorpadise the detractors' chances to be elected as BN candidate in GE 13...

  6. Then the famous 4. 4? Yes...it is 4 and these are the persons who managed to deliver Perak back to BN. Although most of you thought that it's 3 but initially it is 4. Remember Nasruddin of Pasir Salak? At first he jumped to PKR and later reverse his decision to stick with UMNO. As for the other 3, let's just say that they has reaped their rewards. 2 of them who are currently on trial for graft charges may win the case. The last 1 is rumoured to be driving her Merc...

    Perak's MB vs MB will be coming up to the federal court this 5th November 2009. If the federal court rules in favour of PR, then these 4 will have vital roles to play. Maybe more goodies on the way?

  7. Up North, Kedah has 1 BN friendly rep by the name of Mohd Radzhi (Lunas). Although Radzhi did not have the same impact like Osman and Jamaluddin of Perak but it is still a swing towards BN.

    Singularly, Radzhi change in his stand is not detrimental to PR-led Kedah government. However, Radzhi can count on his buddy, another loose canon in the parliament to be on his side. Will Radzhi pursuade his Parlieamentarian member to switch allegiance?

  8. Latest is our friend from Pelabuhan Kelang, Badrul Hisham Abdullah. Malaysia Today picture him as a "no go" from the beginning and wondering why PKR chose him to stand in Pelabuhan Klang. He was not prepared when he lodged in his nomination papers, did not do active campaigning, were sleeping when PKR knock his door to inform of his victory and finally, he savour his victory with UMNO members.

    There are also talks that Badrul Hisham is related to the late Datuk Z thus vulnurable to the temptations. It has also been said that Badrul failed to service his constituents. But that is not all...

    The ongoing political drama in Selangor is reaching new heights with PAS taking firmer actions to investigate the accusations hurled towards their state commissioner. Not only that, JAIS' action against the former mufti of Perlis had tongues wagging. Who is the "hidden" hands that instructed JAIS to arrest Dr Asri? 1M PM6 is efficiently fast to deny any involvement from the federal government. Khalid Ibrahim believed JAIS will conduct the investigation professionally hinting that PR has no part in JAIS's actions. JAIS has also come out to say that it is not politically motivated, thus indirectly relieved Hassan Ali of any responsibility. So if BN, PR is not involved, who else has the authority to direct JAIS?

    A reminder for PR Selangor to prepare for the coming onslaughts as 1MPM6 has promised to return Selangor into BN's arms...is this the tip of an iceberg?

  9. Finally, let's summarise the result and you will get BN 9 against PR's 8. The numbers show that BN has the upper hand in this game. PR should not be hoodwinked in thinking that the road to Putrajaya is clear. BN has many more traps laid along the way.
  10. Whilst PR toil and sweat its way to win the by-elections, BN use time-proven methods to induce cross-overs. And I bet that these cross-overs do not come in cheap....
  11. It is also time for BN to use the BN 9 PR 8 slogan to show that they have the numbers and they won more battles than PR. The more battles you won, the higher is the chance for you to win the war.
  12. They used to say that 3M will determine whether the project will be successful or completed or not. That 3M stands for Manpower, Money and Machineries. BN has the money but they are lacking in terms of manpower. BN's manpower is money based and not idealogical based. In terms of political machineries, both BN and PR is at level with no significant advantage to either party.
  13. It must be noted that BN will be taking full advantage of situations where allegiance change. It is cheaper and cleaner too. BN did not need to wash any dirty linen in open warfare...here BN is still the masters, not because they are efficient but because they have the money to rope in the best talents. It will not surprise me if BN can "pursuade"others to be more BN-friendly.
  14. Going through the issues, PR needs to fortify themselves or risk losing more elected reps through allegiance shift. Is PR ready for that? It is critical for Anwar to shift his thoughts from his "self-centered" idealogy to "ketuanan rakyat". It is no longer about Anwar against sodomy, it is about Malaysians for equality and transperacy. Who is ready for that change? BN's shouted 1 Malaysia but so far there is no concrete proof that 1M PM6 walked the talk. So far, it is all hogwash..just talk no action...Please bear in mind that Malaysia is not a member of NATO but judging from how the government deals with problems, Malaysia maybe overly qualified as NATO (No Action, Talk Only) un-official member.

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...

10 comments:

looes74 said...

Good analysis. Anyway have been away for too long. I would be residing in China. China government comes down hard on blog

Tell me an alternative way of visiting your site

ahoo said...

Man proposes BUT ultimately it is God that disposes. We mere mortals can do all that we can but life and death is not within our control. For a nation to change it's govt, it will have to reach rock bottom for its people to wake up from their slumber. We need the young ones to be registered as voters and also for them to know that the destiny of this nation is in their hands. They need to choose wisely and ensure that this nation's wealth cannot be plundered and compromise by those corrupted ones.

looes74 said...

No news from you. You must be busy too. I would be back to China. Lets see besides your personal e-mail, how I can access your blog in China.

I can't gain the usual way in China. All Blogs are blocked there

nightcaller said...

Looes74

Welcome back...
I will try to connect with my chinese friends from mainland China...and maybe they have ways to access the blogs from there...
will advise u either thro' mail on other alternatives....

Ahoo

When it comes to divinity planning...I have no comment.

However as they say it in the Quran/Hadiths "Nothing will change unless man tries to change (work for changes)"

Let us all be tools for the change - the change for a better and brighter Malaysia...(including transperacy etc)

looes74 said...

Better do it soon. I am leaving for Shanghai on monday

nightcaller said...

Loose 74

My friend in hina inform me that there is no problem to access to blog in China. Th eonly restriction (maybe) is that u cannot access it from ur office computer....

He has tried it from his home... no problem....

Hope u have sweet memories when u work in Shanghai....:)

Don't forget Malaysia...ok...

sunwayopal said...

NC,

If you count as 1 when the UMNO man jump back to UMNO when he was in Pakatan, the real score should be 9-9.

You have also to count as 1 for Pakatan when he jump first time from UMNO to Pakatan.

Right?



btw, in china, try to access using proxy sites.

Try this one

www.freeproxyserver.net

Type in the url and click go!!




sunwayopal
http://www.myrealestate.com.my

nightcaller said...

Sunwayopal

I have already calculated as 1 when he jump to PR...
so that's why the score was BN 7 PR 1 :)

So the score remains at BN 9-PR 8 (and hopefully no more jumping from hereon)...

Thks for ur pointers to Loose74...hope that will helps...

sunwayopal said...

NC,

Fair enough.

But what abt BeeEnd lost the 2 MPs from Sabah.

The 2 from SAPP.

Although they didnt join Pakatan, but they are certainly out of BeeEnd right?

If you class Ibrahim as a +1 for BeeEnd, these 2 surely counts as +2 for Pakatan ?



sunwayopal
http://www.myrealestate.com.my

nightcaller said...

Sunwayopal,
Thks for pointing out about SAPP. I have put it in my update. I guess PR is still barely leading on the numbers now...