Thursday, February 02, 2012

Of winnable candidates, winnable seats and...

Take on all probabilities and see what are the options and remedial measures! Don't wait for the time comes as when it comes and if it comes, Malaysia will be plunging into another constitutional crisis

Well... Since everyone is gearing up to GE 13, let's revisit 1MPM6 Najib 's pledge to choose 'winnable' candidate. Honestly, this is easier said than done especially when it involves BN.

1MPM6 Najib surely is facing an uphill task in choosing a "winnable" candidate. Not only that, it is doubtful if Najib can secure enough "winnable" candidates for BN to cruise through GE 13! How many can Najib secure "winnable" candidates from the likes of MCA, MIC, Gerakan, and PPP? In fact, how many can Najib's UMNO pledge to BN for "winnable" candidates? Surely, Najib can't be banking on appointed UMNO senators to beef up his cabinet, can he?

Back to "winnable" candidates - 1MPM6 Najib has his work cut out when Shahidan Kassim staked a claim that he is THE "winnable" candidate. That said, can Najib afford to drop Shahidan in GE 13? If Shaidan claims that he is THE "winnable" candidate, then what about Ghaffur, Bung and Aziz, UMNO's threesome in parliament? Will they be categorised as "winnable" candidates too?

Najib vaguely define "winnable candidates as :-

  1. Someone who can win regardless of age;
  2. It does not matter how many terms he/she has served (meaning that the post is his/hers till death?);

1MPM6 Najib failed to address those with tainted records such as :-
  1. Corruption or perceived to be corrupt (eg PKFZ, NFC);
  2. Abuse of power/position (eg AP, zakat (tithe) fund, Maika);
  3. Sexual misbehaviours (eg Batu Pahat, KL Hilton/Le Meridien);
Will 1MPM6 Najib accept those with tainted records if they are deemed to be "winnable"? Or do Najib considered himself "tainted" but "winnable"? Or is Najib's silence on candidates moral characters underlines his own weakness?

Since we are talking "winnable", why not expand it further to include "winnable" seats? Since 1MPM6 Najib does not cover this, let us start with the definition of "winnable" BN seats. "Winnable" seats are those seats considered to be BN's vault. No matter who BN put up as candidate, then the person will win hands down, regardless of his/her age, education level, social skills, moral characters etc.

For many years, most seats in Johor, Pahang, Melaka, Sabah and Sarawak are considered "winnable" seats. Looking at how Bung Moktar degrades women with his often sexist remarks, one wonders why he is still BN's elected parliamentarian. Remember Mohd Said of Jasin Melaka? He is the one who poke fun at women with his "leaky" remarks.

Why didn't 1MPM6 Najib announce about "winnable" seats? Did he know something that we don't? Is he getting the feedback that there is no longer such thing as "winnable" seats? Or is "winnable" seats limited to Pekan and Pagoh only? The rest are no longer in BN's poll vault?

Apart from "winnable" candidates and "winnable" seats, there is another that 1MPM6 Najib purposely avoids mentioning. Like it or not, there is also what is termed as "winnable" loyalty. How do you define "winnable" loyalty? This is the tricky part. The simple definition of "winnable" loyalty is the "independent" deciding factor that can make or break you.

Remember Idris Jusoh of Terengganu? Although Idris leads Terengganu BN to another resounding victory in GE 12, Idris runs foul of "winnable" loyalty. After 14 days on uncertainties, Idris was stripped from his MB's post and the vacant post filled by Ahmad Said. Idris did what he thought as the right thing requesting the "winnable" loyalty to endorsed and later consented to his appointment as MB. That is not to be and along the way it is said that the "winnable" loyalty's actions is another slap in the face to the then PM Abdullah Badawi.

Remember Perak? PR lost the state when 1MPM6 Najib enticed 3 PR lawmakers to crossover, leading to a constitutional crisis in Perak. The "winnable" loyalty consented Zambry to take over the MB's post. Here, not only PR lost the MB's post but more so, PR lost the state with outside interference and manouvering of 1MPM6 Najib, then DPM Najib!

If Terengganu talks about "winnable" loyalty non-consent, Perak witness "winnable" loyalty's succumb to slick manouvering by BN, there is another type of "winnable" loyalty in the likes of Pahang. In Pahang's case, the "winnable" loyalty's actions revealed that he is more BN than BN's founding fathers.

What will happen if the "winnable" loyalty refuse to consent the party or coalition of parties with the majority seats? Can the "winnable" loyalty appoints one whom he likes? Can he appoints someone from the minority group to head the state? Can he make political statements to favour a political party?

"Winnable" candidate, "winnable" seats, "winnable "loyalty - these are some of the factors that 1MPM6 Najib is looking into and something PR has to be aware of. Winning GE 13 may be easier to PR now with the present sentiment. But whether PR can take over Putrajaya hinges on whether the "winnable" loyalty will endorse PR's man to helm Putrajaya. The same goes to the states with suspected "winnable" loyalty stand. And since we are talking about "winnable" loyalty, what about those states where federal-appointed governors are the heads of states? Will these Governors act the way Penang Governor acts or will they be involved in their own CM's oath taking ceremony. This is something the constitutional experts have to discuss. Take on all probabilities and see what are the options and remedial measures! Don't wait for the time comes as when it comes and if it comes, Malaysia will be plunging into another constitutional crisis and then, maybe...we will have another "winnable" category - that of "winnable judiciary". God forbids it from happening...

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...

1 comment:

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