55 seats retained by BN. More than sufficient to govern Sarawak with a comfortable 2/3 majority. 15 seats to PR which comes up to 21% from the total 71.
At a glance, it is a big win for BN. Going deeper and into the microscopic view, 16th April 2011 bares it all - it's not smooth sailing for BN. not anymore. Not in the supposedly BN's safe vault!
Whilst many have put their analytical hat to crack the Sarawak code, this scribe has warn PR from being overzealous in Sarawak here, here and here. Sarawak is too big for PR to cover this time. On top of that, the many PR party workers start their campaigning handicapped by language and adat barriers compounded by the poor road network, thanks to Taib Mahmud's 30 year reign.
With Najib and Muhyiddin camping out in Sarawak, criss crossing the state with their "official" helicopters, BN should do much better than 55 seats. In this, BN has failed and there is no excuse for such failure! BN cannot point the loss to Taib Mahmud alone. Taib Mahmud is not BN. Najib and Muhyiddin has more rights to BN compared to Taib.
BN should thanks its lucky stars that the Melanaus are still sticking to BN. Not because they wanted to but more because they believe that the CM's post should go to a Melanau by the name of Taib Mahmud! If for whatever reason Najib announced before 16th April 2011 that the CM is anybody but Taib, BN would have lost Sarawak. That's for sure because the Melanaus who dutifully lined up the polling stations will definitely go for PR's candidates, in protest to Najib. That did not happen and BN still retains Sarawak.
Do you think Najib is happy? Do you think Taib Mahmud is happy? Do you think that Muhyiddin thinks this is worth his time? The answer is NO. Just look at how uncomfortable Taib Mahmud is during his live video conference with Najib. And Najib's face tells all. He is not happy. And that video conference is before taib Mahmud rushes over to Istana Governor for his "swearing in". Did Taib Mahmud whispered to Muhyiddin who was flying off soon after the video conference that he is going for the swearing in? If he did, did Taib and Muhyiddin conspired against Najib? If not, then was Taib sticking up both Najib's and Muhyiddin's asses?
Back to 16th April 2011. It is becoming clear that the urbans are rejecting BN. It is also clear that some rural areas are looking for BN's alternatives. That means BN's "vote BN for development" approach no longer works in Sarawak. BN wins Sarawak but this win is going to be a double edge sword. BN has less than 2 years to make good its promises and also to rid Taib from the CM's post. If BN fails to deliver its promises within this time, then Sarawak voters will punish BN big time by voting PR parliamentary candidates.
If BN promised Sarawak, do you think Sabah is happy? There is not much different between Sarawak and Sabah. Both lagged behind because of BN's mismanagement of their natural resources. If Najib promise a better Sarawak, why is he not promising a better Sabah too?
The biggest winner is DAP. They are better organise than the other PR partners and contesting in urban areas give them a better advantage. PAS may lost all its 5 seats but the party should not give up on Sarawak. It will perform better when Taib reliquishes his post soon. By then, the Melanaus will openly seek an alternative party to fight for their causes.
Sarawak has manage to free itself from the stigma of being pushovers. Sarawak voters has shown the door to both SUPP and SNAP. SUPP is now joining the ranks of MIC, Gerakan and PPP as parasites to BN. SNAP, on the other hand, should realise that it has no chance to stand alone in Sarawak. The Dayaks are no longer with them.
PKR? Time to learn that humility is a great asset. PKR should stop "bullying" others to follow their needs and desire. If they don't, then they might end up like their "adviser - ambushed at every possible chance.
Najib? I said it before. He is in deeper trouble now since BN fails to deliver better results. His every move is being scrutinised. Heck! He might not have the pleasure of RoseCTmah for long. From now till GE 13, his nights are filled with nightmares. Frightening. Last, Najib will not go for early GE 13. So teachers out there, forget about the recent "smoke signal" of June GE 13...
Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...