Galas is currently synonym with Gua Musang. Gua Musang is synonym with Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. That's my first impression of Galas six months ago and the impression still stands now. And Galas is heading for by-election when Allahyarham Chek Hashim succumbed to cancer on 27th September 2010.
My pre-nomination day feeling? Galas is BN's to lose! And with good reasons too...
- UMNO factorGalas has been proven to be one of UMNO's last foothold in Kelantan. 2008 is one of only two occasion when Galas goes to non-UMNO party.The other was when Tg Razaleigh helmed Semangat 46 in the 90's.With that said, UMNO has the upper hand in the coming by-elecion to wrest Gallas back from PAS.
- Tg Razaleigh factorSome may call him an old horse but Tg Razaleigh still commands respect from both sides of the political divide in Kelantan especially in Gua Musang. For Galas state seat, the orang asli may actually be the deciding factor and if that is so, their long admiration towards "raja kita" may be a blessing to BN.
- Pool of BN potential candidatesSaufi Deraman,Syed Azidi (KickdeFella) and even Tg Razaleigh's name has been freely floated as possible BN candidate. BN really has plenty of choice this time and all of them has their own strength to wrest alas from PAS.
- PKR's infightingPKR's dream of direct election is in tatters as more and more members are critical of the "new" system. Anwar's "blue-eyed boy" is leading Zaid Ibrahim for the deputy president post and Zaid Ibrahim is from Kelantan. Like it or not, it will give some negative impact to PKR and will give adverse effect to PR, notably PAS.
- DAP's Penang's (mis)fortunesLim GE's misfiring in Penang, especially on issues related to gambling money will pull PR down. UMNO will definitely use this issue to the fullest to their own advantage.
- PERKASAUMNO and PERKASA will exploit the bumiputra issue in Galas. For UMNO, Najib's 1Malaysia concept is cosmetics for the urbanites and Galas is not urbaned enough for Najib's 1Malaysia. For that reason, UMNO will hop on PERKASA's stand and will use it as a magnetic pull towards UMNO.
Looks rosy for UMNO and BN, right? Not necessarily so! Gua Musang maybe Tg Razaleigh's fort but Kelantan is PAS's stronghold. What is seen as advantages to UMNO's favour may well turn out to be it's own worst enemies. Consider these :-- UMNO factorIf UMNO is so confident of Galas, why is Muhyiddin (and for that matter UMNO) named Tg Razaleigh Hamzah as their elections director? Is it not UMNO's SOP to have their deputy President to head by-election machineries? Is Muhyiddin getting cold feet to face PAS in Galas? Is Muhyiddin hiding behind Tg Razaleigh because he failed to deliver his UMNO KPIs'?Not only that, this is the first time an UMNO division head (who is not it's deputy President) leads the party's election machinery. If it is for training purposes, why choose Tg Razaleigh who is already past his prime? Why not choose Mustafa Mohamad who is Kelantan's UMNO liason chief to head the battle for Galas? Why not Awang Adek who inspires to be Kelantan's MB?The answer is simple - UMNO is more than willing to retract whatever they say of Tg Razaleigh as long as they have the chance to win Galas. That's hypocricy of the highest level and UMNO can do an about face in whatever situation necessary.
- Tg Razaleigh factorThis Kelantan prince is tested yet again. On one part Tg Razaleigh has previously agreed and supported the call that Kelantan deserve to be paid oil royalty and that stand is clearly against with UMNO's stand regarding the issue. In fact, Tg Razaleigh headed the Kelantan state effort to get the oil royalty.PAS will use the oil royalty issue to the hilt and Tg Razaleigh will be trap between his love for the state and his compassion for UMNO. It is a situation that will end up in a loss-loss situation for UMNO.Tg Razaleigh is also caught between his relationship with Tg Anis and his royalty to the palace. Before, he chose to be neutral but Galas may force him o show hands and this will further jeorpadise UMNO's chance to regain Galas.
- Pool of potential candidatesYes, UMNO may have lots of possible candidates but that wealth and depth of candidates will also be their downfall.To choose Saufi Deraman may picture UMNO as a party who relies on losers and UMNO will be gambling their chances if they opted for Syed Azidi, the blogger as their Galas candidate. How many of the voters in Galas knows Syed Azidi?As for Tg Razaleigh as candidate, that's the final humiliation for the prince who once lead Bank Bumiputra, Finance Ministry, Semangat 46 and the one who almost become Malaysia's PM. That said, the other person who is dreaming of being named as UMNO's candidate is Awang Adek. Since he wants to be Kelantan's MB, why not start as Kelantan's opposition leader, if Md Alwi Che Ahmad is willing to give way.
- PKR's infightingFace it. PKR is not an issue in Galas.Although PKR's top brass may like to be treated with golden spoons, Galas will not care about PKR. So the much-hyped PKR's infighting will have little bearing in Galas.
- DAP (mis)fortuneUMNO may thinks that they are on the right offensive mode when they managed to convince some elderly folks in Penang to return the so-called RM 100 compassionate fund. What Azhar failed to see is the same applies to UMNO and the federal government. Asri, the former Perlis mufti, did not deemed the money as haram as these elderly folks are not the ones involved in gambling. It might likely ends up as UMNO being the "cerdik tak boleh di ikut, bodoh tak boleh di ajar" group.
UMNO seems to be having all the right recipe to win comfortably in Galas. Yet, with all the right mix, Muhyiddein is still hesistant to take up the election director's post and instead passed the baton to Tg Razaleigh before the latter could even reply of his readiness to accept the responsibility.
UMNO needs to re-establish it's strength and they have to return to their last bastion which is the rural folks. Galas has been UMNO's oberdient supporters and it is PAS who has the uphill task to convince Galas why they should vote PAS.
If Galas is retained by PAS by even a 1-vote majority, all will be lost for UMNO and Najib can start packing Putrajaya and prepare to live as the "last UMNO PM". But, if UMNO wwwrest Galas by a majority of less that 400 votes, then GE 13 will be an interesting turning point to either coalition party...
Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...
9 comments:
dnightcaller,
It's been long time. On Galas, heard of Rommel. While Najib is no Hitler though I suspect Mahathir is, Razaleigh reminds me of Rommel. Rommel was "jobless" after the North African campaign.
You think of the long history of Ku Li minus off his departure to form Semangat 46. Just like Erwin Rommel, the Desert Fox, Ku Li snatch Kelantan from Berjasa who has schism with PAS.....Rommel snatch Tobruk from the British when months earlier the british snatch Tobruk from German-Italy alliance......Read WWII history further, Rommel race towards Egypt before he was repelled in El Alamein.....Just as Ku Li was defeatedby 40 votes...ahem....
Would Galas be Normandy for Kelantan? Rommel was outgun or outman....Rommel was forced to run for life back to Tunisia....Ooops, my mind gone wild....Normandy, D-Day...Hmmm....
I always consider PAS as "the Red Army USSR"....You know what....Final battle is existing....Battle for Berlin....Gosh, I love WWII history
Looes74
Rommel or not, BN needs to win Galas badly. And if they lose, it is as good as saying bye bye to Putrajaya for Najib...
The subtle hints are all there and falling in place...postpone the GST bill tabling, postpone on the workers bill...getting rid of Musa Hassan, change the immigration DG...all to plug the gaping holes in BN.
Even if Tg "Rommel" Razaleigh manage to get Galas, it is still not the whole picture...the "gambling money" funds may backfire in Penang, the logjam will be jamming Taib Mahmud, Rais's personal war with bloggers will be another setback to BN.
And we have not add in the "Banting" murder case, the extra mileage to "appease" the rakyat by sending 7 immigration officials to Kemunting..what about the Petronas "non transperacy" issue? Or Rosemah's first lady meeting devoid of real first ladies? Sime Darby is not doing good biz and Felda settlers are bringing the entity to curts...too many leaks for BN...and Najib is clueless where to start the repairs, and his task is made more difficult with Rosemah over-exposure...
BUT PR is no angel either...just look at PKR's state of affairs and we can safely say that even if PR wins, they shall not win outright 2/3 majority or they may end up worse than BN :)
Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...
Dnightcaller,
That one I agree. No more 2/3 majority to any political party but no to situation happening in Australia & UK. Okie, Germany has truly incompatible political parties working together. Christian Democrats Socialist alliance ring a bell. Worst than PAS-DAP.
As for Razaleigh, some even use Don Quixote. Nah, Razaleigh was Erwin Rommel of UMNO. Don't even think of putting Rommel on Nuremberg trial, hehehe, you might as well put that clown who obliterate Dresden.
Dnightcaller,
Heard of anything on the orang asli church being demolished. Any news that would incriminate PAS. This time, I vouch for PAS victory. I respect Razeliegh but just as Rommel, he's from the outside....sigh....Just hope that unlike Rommel, Razaleigh wouldn't be "poisoned"
Looes74
The orang asli church issue? That is compliments from Jabatan Hal Ehwal Orang Asli (JHEOA) which incidentally is under the purview of Kementerian Kemajuan Luarbandar dan Wilayah and the man in charge is Shafie Afdal who is also UMNO's VP. It is JHEOA that reject the application. That said, the issue will not affect PAS but will be a cancerous lump for BN.
PAS only advised that the church should apply for approval first before building and not build first, then apply for building approval...in short, PAS request for those concerned to follow the procedures as stated in the rules and regulations.
Dnightcaller,
I think some of us need to dispel this disinformation quick. Some Barisan Rakyat bloggers distracted by the on-going dispute in PKR. Worst, RPK is under the influence that it's PAS that leads to the destruction. Now, that's bad if such disinformation not stopped. Of course, no need to overeact towards this situation.
Looes74
I agree with you on that point and hope that they will joined forces when the real crunch time comes.
Church issue apart, the one campaign strategy that turns Orang Asli away from PR is the "liquor vote". That happens in Hulu Selangor when the orang asli settlements receive non-stop liquor/beer consignment, courtesy of u know who. If this recurs in Galas, then those +1600 votes may turn the tide , yet again... BN misleads elders with "gambling money" approach but at the same time "liquor vote" was blatantly practised in Hulu Selangor...
Nightcaller,
I can't agree more. Worst still, Zaid saw a slight increase of votes he got as compared to predecessor but.....Galas is better, only got 200 votes.
Batu Sapi is no good....1600 postal votes
Looes74
Batu Sapi is another litmus test for PR. If they lets SAPP stands, then we can see how "effective" is the PR election machinery. Although it is written all over that BN may bulldoze Batu Sapi, but the most important parameter is by how much?
It will also see whether "Sibu" effect is getting contageous in Batu Sapi or not...
Dnightcaller,
Batu Sapi is a mixed constituencies. You know in Sabah, you can't just lump all the sabah muslim majorities together & saying that hey we should put in a muslim there. That's why I disagree of PAS going into Batu Sapi as a potential candidate.
As for PKR, we have all kinda names coming. Thamrin, Jeffrey, Christina.....You know what..I would vouch for one dear madam....A former magistrate, once was from Bersekutu, now in DAP. Former DAP candidate for Sandakan Shanty Chong. Batu Sapi was actually part of Sandakan before it's hived off as a seperate constituencies. Just as Sibu, Sandakan was one of the 4 constitucies snatched by DAP....Check out who Fung Ket Wing is.....
With due respect to all other candidates, I believe Shanty should serve Batu Sapi much better. DAP machinery is pretty strong in Sandakan....If you play things right, it would be another
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