Of snippets.... the numbers game (with latest update)

What will the final numbers tomorrow?  

This is going to be a tough call... The numbers are changing by the minute and the "Five" may not be able to control tomorrow's outcome, not as easy when they hatch the "Sheraton move".

Last week when I was back in town, a little yellow bird chirps about the "Five" who claims to be the brains behind the Sheraton move. Two of them comes from the southern states, one each from east coast, central and northen states of Peninsular Malaysia.

It is said that when they make the "Sheraton move", they placed their handphones on the table and "open table" for deals which includes a call from a political veteran who was also interested to be PM. Finally, they decided to put one of their own to be PM-designate since old Fox is not interested in their deal. The rest, as they say it, is history.

It is also said that as late as last weekend, these "Five" is still trying to cut deals to ensure Budget 2021 gets the numbers. They are toying with numbers, combinations and permutation - all in their combines effort to deny "PM rakyat" the opportunity to govern the country.

Back to the numbers game, We started at 222. Now, we are down at 220 with two vacancies ie Batu Sapi and Gerik. Batu Sapi has been declared under emergency and Gerik by-election date has not been gazetted. Mind you that Batu Sapi was Warisan's chair (presumably opposition) whilst Gerik is held by BN (read : PN which is the Government of the day).

Out of 220 balance, abah Din is said to commands around 112 - 113 before Budget 2021 was tabled. That numbers was never confirmed and was accepted based on presumption. Now comes the good part. Ku Li, did not participate in previous voting since PN took over. Few days ago, he declared that he will not take part in Budget 2021 debate. Does that mean Ku Li will be "absent" tomorrow when budget 2021 goes for voting? One number out from PN. That means abah Din hopes to get at most 112 ayes, meaning a majority of 4 votes.

From budget 2021 debate, BN (reads : Najib as BN BBC) gives conditional condition for budget 2021. If abah Din fails to address the demands set by BN, BN might be forced to abstain, vote against, decided for mass absentees during the voting process. There are 40 MPs from BN and if we take a conservative figure of only 5 chose to abstain, abah Din will only have 107 votes and taht is a clear defeat to Budget 2021.

How does abah Din counter the deficit? If he chose to go to Warisan's 7, what will the political price? Afterall, it is abah Din's "Five"who dethrone Safie Afdal from his CM seat in Sabah.. On top of that, there are strong indication that Shafie will not go alone in this venture, he may be on board with Pejuang. That means it will be a high political price to pay for abah Din.

Even if abah Din managed to swing Warisan into his "Five" camp, UMNO may decide to go en bloc to sit out the budget except for H2O and UMNO ministers who are forced to support the budget. That will still be a lose to abah Din.

Tun M and his Pejuang has declared that they reserve their support to Budget 2021. For the time being, put that as a strong dissenting to budget 2021.

The "Five" may need to work extra hard tonight to get the numbers. Mind you that from the "Five", two of them are eyeing for PM ship since abah Din may not last long. Will the "Five" experience internal cracks? One of them from the east coast is not even an MP and he may not command as much respect within his own party.

To me, abah Din should surrender his position to PM rakyat and sit out until GE 15 for the rakyat to choose. It is not up to the "Five" to think for 33 million rakyats and it is not to the "Five" to dictate the direction. The Rakyats has make their choice in GE 14 - for better or worse, give the mandate to those who rightfully win GE 14 to govern.

Latest : 

Adding to Abah Din's headache is Keningau's Jeffrey Kitingan. Dewan Rakyat's speaker has instructed all MPs to do scheduled tests as well as barring  MPs returning from Sabah from attending Dewan Rakyat sitting for 14 days from the date they reached peninsular Malaysia.

Jeffrey was last seen in Kota Kinabalu on 12th November 2020 and if my arithmetics is right, he can only attend parliament on 26th November (read : after budget 2021 voting). That will be a major headache to the depleted "Five" plan.

Dr Adham Baba tried to soften the blow by claiming that the Health Ministry has issued a clean bill of health to Keningau. What Adham Baba forgot is there is actually 2 issues pertaining to Keningau. One, he was a close contact and thus required to undergo self quarantine. Second, there is the Speaker ruling which could not be superceded by Health Ministry because in parliament, Speaker is the ultimate power.

Even if Adham Baba comes up with the new circular that effective today, those returning from Sabah need not self-quarantine, this is not applicable in parliament.

If Keningau is allowed to sit in parliament, then abah Din's already tattered reputation will suffer another blow... As is, the numbers is not looking good for the "Five". Maybe a deeper pocket can help them out... and freebies to PAS, Warisan can given them another lifeline...

Latest...latest...

Tun M and friends will not back budget 2021. Although on paper, Tun M has 4 MPs backing him, there is some uncertainties of how many friends is with him right now. He did not elaborate. Assuming that his friends are those from Warisan, then his strength is approximately 11 plus. That does not sound good with abah Din.

Being Tun M, he put a caveat on his statement adding that he has no issue to work with abah Din in the name of national interest. That said, it is still fluid and abah Din still have a few hours left to seal a deal with Tun M and friends. Abah Din's "Five" waiting for better offer?

Latest...latest...latest...

Reports are coming in that Zahid and Co (not the same with Zahid of ZICO fame) met with Finance Minister yesterday. Last minute changes from Finance Minister is possible to win over Zahid's BN. Afterall, what BN is looking for is simple - money and power. If Finance Minister can bend backwards to accomodate the finance part, then it is abah Din's turn to revisit the "power" part with BN, even if that means sidelining Azmin  whose final aim is to be PM9.

We might be heading for an anti-climax here. Politicians, being politicians, are putting selves above nation interest. After is said and done, the politicians will start window dressing, whilst waiting for Santa Claus Finance Minister to hand them their financial rewards on a silver platter and abah Din dishing out sweets for his continual stay as PM8.

Chances of budget 2021 voted down? Hmm... slim chance. In the end, Anwar will still be PM Rakyat with no office in Putrajaya...

Latest, latest, latest... latest

Today's voting will not be the last. Even if there is a breather for abah Din, that does not mean his government is stable. Today's voting is 2nd reading but there will be another voting related to budget on 15th December 2020. Safe today cannot be translated as safe on 15th Dec 2020.

I see 15th Dec voting as more crucial because today, abah Din can promise the moon and the stars for budget 2021's survival. From now to 15th Dec, abah Din needs to meet his support's expectation which may includes a DPM post. That is more crucial, especially with azmin potentially becoming a stumbling block to Muhyiddin.

Anuar Musa is going for psy-war when he talks about traitors in BN. He is echoing Arau in Arau's debate on budget 2021. Lokman Adam predicted abah Din's fall today and fail to get majority in budget 2021. I strongly feels that budget 2021 will survicve today but abah Din will have sleepless nights ahead and his "Five" team members will be cracking heads to keep abah Din afloat.

Mother of all latest...

A reliable bird just chirpped in and says that budget 2021 (2nd reading) will be approved with majority. There goes all the "sandiwaras" and "ugut mengugut". They are all showcases and leverage for financial return and other side rewards. In short, politicians are for sale... at the right price.

I guess, its time for lokman Adam to hang his boots, Tun M to ride into the sunset, anwar to give up his PM rakyat's title, Najib's conditional support, Ku Li's idea of confidence vote... everythings is gone, slushed by "Five" flash flood.

The rakyats? Conned and deceived again by the same foxes with different clothings.... congrats abah Din for proving and showcasing that Malaysians politicians are "mata duitan" and "kowtimable", given the right price...

From the bottom of my heart, I pray budget 2021 defeated and return for ammendments.... 

Let the number games begin... and continue

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...