D N45 Galas : Pre-nomination day build up...

Galas is currently synonym with Gua Musang. Gua Musang is synonym with Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. That's my first impression of Galas six months ago and the impression still stands now. And Galas is heading for by-election when Allahyarham Chek Hashim succumbed to cancer on 27th September 2010.

My pre-nomination day feeling? Galas is BN's to lose! And with good reasons too...

1. UMNO factor
   Galas has been proven to be one of UMNO's last foothold in Kelantan. 2008 is one of only two occasion when Galas goes to non-UMNO party.The other was when Tg Razaleigh helmed Semangat 46 in the 90's.
   With that said, UMNO has the upper hand in the coming by-elecion to wrest Gallas back from PAS.
   
   
2. Tg Razaleigh factor
   Some may call him an old horse but Tg Razaleigh still commands respect from both sides of the political divide in Kelantan especially in Gua Musang. For Galas state seat, the orang asli may actually be the deciding factor and if that is so, their long admiration towards "raja kita" may be a blessing to BN.
   
   
3. Pool of BN potential candidates
   Saufi Deraman,Syed Azidi (KickdeFella) and even Tg Razaleigh's name has been freely floated as possible BN candidate. BN really has plenty of choice this time and all of them has their own strength to wrest alas from PAS.
   
   
4. PKR's infighting
   PKR's dream of direct election is in tatters as more and more members are critical of the "new" system. Anwar's "blue-eyed boy" is leading Zaid Ibrahim for the deputy president post and Zaid Ibrahim is from Kelantan. Like it or not, it will give some negative impact to PKR and will give adverse effect to PR, notably PAS.

5. DAP's Penang's (mis)fortunes
   Lim GE's misfiring in Penang, especially on issues related to gambling money will pull PR down. UMNO will definitely use this issue to the fullest to their own advantage.
   
   
6. PERKASA
   UMNO and PERKASA will exploit the bumiputra issue in Galas. For UMNO, Najib's 1Malaysia concept is cosmetics for the urbanites and Galas is not urbaned enough for Najib's 1Malaysia. For that reason, UMNO will hop on PERKASA's stand and will use it as a magnetic pull towards UMNO.
   

Looks rosy for UMNO and BN, right? Not necessarily so! Gua Musang maybe Tg Razaleigh's fort but Kelantan is PAS's stronghold. What is seen as advantages to UMNO's favour may well turn out to be it's own worst enemies. Consider these :-

1. UMNO factor
   If UMNO is so confident of Galas, why is Muhyiddin (and for that matter UMNO) named Tg Razaleigh Hamzah as their elections director? Is it not UMNO's SOP to have their deputy President to head by-election machineries? Is Muhyiddin getting cold feet to face PAS in Galas? Is Muhyiddin hiding behind Tg Razaleigh because he failed to deliver his UMNO KPIs'?
   Not only that, this is the first time an UMNO division head (who is not it's deputy President) leads the party's election machinery. If it is for training purposes, why choose Tg Razaleigh who is already past his prime? Why not choose Mustafa Mohamad who is Kelantan's UMNO liason chief to head the battle for Galas? Why not Awang Adek who inspires to be Kelantan's MB?
   The answer is simple - UMNO is more than willing to retract whatever they say of Tg Razaleigh as long as they have the chance to win Galas. That's hypocricy of the highest level and UMNO can do an about face in whatever situation necessary.
   
   
2. Tg Razaleigh factor
   This Kelantan prince is tested yet again. On one part Tg Razaleigh has previously agreed and supported the call that Kelantan deserve to be paid oil royalty and that stand is clearly against with UMNO's stand regarding the issue. In fact, Tg Razaleigh headed the Kelantan state effort to get the oil royalty.
   PAS will use the oil royalty issue to the hilt and Tg Razaleigh will be trap between his love for the state and his compassion for UMNO. It is a situation that will end up in a loss-loss situation for UMNO.
   Tg Razaleigh is also caught between his relationship with Tg Anis and his royalty to the palace. Before, he chose to be neutral but Galas may force him o show hands and this will further jeorpadise UMNO's chance to regain Galas.
   
   
3. Pool of potential candidates
   Yes, UMNO may have lots of possible candidates but that wealth and depth of candidates will also be their downfall.To choose Saufi Deraman may picture UMNO as a party who relies on losers and UMNO will be gambling their chances if they opted for Syed Azidi, the blogger as their Galas candidate. How many of the voters in Galas knows Syed Azidi?
   As for Tg Razaleigh as candidate, that's the final humiliation for the prince who once lead Bank Bumiputra, Finance Ministry, Semangat 46 and the one who almost become Malaysia's PM. That said, the other person who is dreaming of being named as UMNO's candidate is Awang Adek. Since he wants to be Kelantan's MB, why not start as Kelantan's opposition leader, if Md Alwi Che Ahmad is willing to give way.
   
   
4. PKR's infighting
   Face it. PKR is not an issue in Galas.Although PKR's top brass may like to be treated with golden spoons, Galas will not care about PKR. So the much-hyped PKR's infighting will have little bearing in Galas.

5. DAP (mis)fortune
   UMNO may thinks that they are on the right offensive mode when they managed to convince some elderly folks in Penang to return the so-called RM 100 compassionate fund. What Azhar failed to see is the same applies to UMNO and the federal government. Asri, the former Perlis mufti, did not deemed the money as haram as these elderly folks are not the ones involved in gambling. It might likely ends up as UMNO being the "cerdik tak boleh di ikut, bodoh tak boleh di ajar" group.
   
   

UMNO seems to be having all the right recipe to win comfortably in Galas. Yet, with all the right mix, Muhyiddein is still hesistant to take up the election director's post and instead passed the baton to Tg Razaleigh before the latter could even reply of his readiness to accept the responsibility.

UMNO needs to re-establish it's strength and they have to return to their last bastion which is the rural folks. Galas has been UMNO's oberdient supporters and it is PAS who has the uphill task to convince Galas why they should vote PAS.

If Galas is retained by PAS by even a 1-vote majority, all will be lost for UMNO and Najib can start packing Putrajaya and prepare to live as the "last UMNO PM". But, if UMNO wwwrest Galas by a majority of less that 400 votes, then GE 13 will be an interesting turning point to either coalition party...

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are... Read More